WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Paris

Paris

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. May 23 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Mon. May 28 ~ U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day Holiday
* Wed. May 30 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. June 1 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Tues. June 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. June 13 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* JCPOA - Will President Trump recertify the JCPOA on May 12?...stay tuned...May 8 the answer is "No"...US pariticipation in the deal
is scrapped...new sanctions coming for Iran and, possibly, for nations supporting Iran.

Saturday, December 03, 2011

"Fat Finger" look-a-likes

Below is a Weekly chartgrid of the YM, ES, NQ & TF.


While I was studying it this morning, I noticed the May 3rd, 2010 weekly candle...it contains the infamous "Fat Finger" May 6/10 daily candle, on which the YM plunged 1025 points, the ES plunged 112.75 points, the NQ plunged 232.75 points, and the TF plunged 73.30 points.

I also noticed the August 1st, 2011 weekly candle...its range is larger than the 2010 candle on the ES & TF...and is slightly smaller on the YM & NQ.

In the case of the YM, ES & TF, there has been similar subsequent price action around a moving average on both occasions...the 50 sma (red) in 2010 and the 200 sma (pink) in 2011...the NQ has held up a bit better since it didn't touch the 200 sma. Notice how price plunged in 2011 to around the top of the 2010 candle (mid-way on the TF)...a violent re-test of this extremely volatile action (pre-planned or coincidence?). The Bollinger Bands are beginning to narrow now, as they did in 2010...price subsequently rallied in 2010...whether they rally this time remains to be seen...and it may not be as "cut & dried" as it seems.

However, I'd submit that the following levels are highly important (approximately the top of the 2010 candle) and must be held (or re-captured and held if they are violated and recent gaps filled in) if the bulls are going to make a run for higher  highs on a weekly basis...and set the stage for a convincing new bull trendOtherwise, I'd look for more violent plunges ahead.

  • YM = 11000
  • ES = 1200
  • NQ = 2050
  • TF = 730


  • Also, what's different this time is the ranges on the 2011 weekly candles have been much larger following their initial plunge than the ones in 2010...no doubt a reflection of the weakness in Europe...this may continue for as long as the European debt crises remains unresolved...and it may be that price is reluctant to venture very far above the range that began in August of this year until some kind of definitive long-lasting action has been taken in Europe that would satisfy the markets once and for all. I realize that there are other global economic, financial and fiscal problems/risks which are unfolding each day, as well...so, it seems, that the bulls are taking advantage of relatively "quiet and temporarily positive" short periods of time in which to ramp up the markets...all good and well until the next catastrophic piece of news hits the fans, which seems to be happening on a regular basis.