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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Vintage Xmas Shopping

Vintage Xmas Shopping



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Friday, November 09, 2012

Money Flow for November Week 1

Further to my last weekly market update, this week's update will look at:
  • 6 Major Indices
  • 9 Major Sectors
  • A comparison of the SPX to other World Indices

6 Major Indices

Continuing with last week's weakness, all six Major Indices closed this week lower, as shown on the Weekly charts and the 1-Week percentage gained/lost graph below.

9 Major Sectors

Also continuing with last week's weakness, all nine Major Sectors closed this past week lower, as shown on the Weekly charts and the 1-Week percentage gained/lost graph below.

In general, this week's losses (after the initial "dead-cat bounce" at the beginning of the week) may be attributed to the markets' reaction to the U.S. election results. All of the Major Indices and 8 of the 9 Major Sectors closed below their mid-Bollinger Band...the exception is the Financial Sector, which ended just above. Once again, I would suggest monitoring price action on these around their mid-Bollinger Band in order to gauge relative strength (above) or weakness (below).

As I mentioned in my posts of November 8th and November 7th, each of the Major Indices (including a 7th...the S&P 100 Index) have now broken below their major uptrend line from the October 2011 lows. Any backtest of and subsequent failure to break and hold above their respective trendlines would confirm a setup for a major move down. We could, of course, see continued weakness from here, which could send the related E-mini Futures Indices (YM, ES & TF) to their respective Head & Shoulders targets of 12400, 1330, and 735, inasmuch as their necklines have now been broken.


SPX vs. Other World Indices

Depicted on the following Weekly ratio charts are comparisons of the S&P 500 Index with other World Indices. As I mentioned in my post of October 26th, the SPX has weakened compared to all of them, either in the past few days, couple of weeks, couple of months, or from mid-2012.

You can see that this week's early rally didn't last, and the SPX finished either close to last week's close or below. Most of the indicators are still trending down, which suggest further relative weakness to come for the SPX compared with other World Indices.

The big question is whether the SPX resumes a leadership role compared to these other indices in the next few days, weeks, or even months. We may see further comparative weakness until the the Fiscal Cliff issue and looming Debt Ceiling issue are resolved. Until they are, the markets will remain volatile and reactive to news-related events, inasmuch as there is a great deal of domestic and foreign economic uncertainty related to these issues. Either way, it will be interesting to see where the SPX ends up by the end of this year as either a world index leader or a laggard.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck next week!

N.B. I'll be posting a number of charts showing support and resistance levels for a variety of instruments during the course of the weekend, so please check my Blog for that post.