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The charts and comments in my Blog (posted in Eastern Time) represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of markets...
*World Indices *U.S. Indices *Futures *U.S. Equities & Sectors *ETFs *Commodities *Forex
...an expanded version of the "Observations" section in my private Daily Trading Journal.

*** N.B. to my readers: Although I stopped trading in July 2013, I still take a peek at the markets now and then and post the occasional article here on my Blog.
NEW SERVICE: I'm pleased to announce the launch of my new service as a Certified Professional Life Coach...please check out this page for details and updates.

Jackson Hole

Jackson Hole

JY

JY
Janet Yellen speaks at 10:00 am on Friday, August 22, 2014 from Jackson Hole Symposium

EVENTS

Earnings Calendar: Courtesy of Yahoo! Finance
Fed's POMO Schedule: at this link
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: Annual economic symposium conference at Jackson Hole ~ August 21-23

Friday, 15 August 2014

Technology First

A continued rally in the equity markets is really dependent on continued leadership in Technology, as well as a recovery in Small-Caps.

The following Weekly comparison chart of the Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Indices shows that, from the 2009 lows, Technology has led the overall rally, for the most part, and, particularly, since early this year when the spread has widened considerably between the NDX and the others.


The following 60-day 60-minute comparison chart of these 4 Indices shows the NDX approaching this year's high, while the RUT has the furthest to go to reach that point. I'd watch for any build in volumes in the NDX and the RUT on, either a rally, or any decline from this point...to confirm a commitment in sentiment, one way or the other.


The declining momentum indicator on the following 60-day 60-minute ratio chart of SPX:VIX is not confirming this latest rally in the SPX from August 11th.

Any low-volume push higher in the NDX and RUT, combined with weakness in the SPX may indicate a loss of appetite for equities in the near-term. Price on this ratio chart has pushed above the near-term resistance level of 150.00 (mentioned in my post of August 11th). Failure to hold this level will likely see Monday's gap-up filled. A break and hold below the 110.00 level may see a much larger-scale correction in equities begin...hence, the importance of volume commitment, either way, in the NDX and RUT.


Tuesday, 12 August 2014

R.I.P. Robin Williams ~ July 21, 1951 – August 11, 2014

Robin Williams...the true miracle-maker who brought his audiences much joy...


My thoughts and prayers are with his family and friends.

Monday, 11 August 2014

2014: A Year of Indecision and Volatility

Each candle on the SPX:VIX ratio chart below represents one year. I last wrote about this ratio pair on July 31st.

You can see at a glance that price action has been extremely volatile, so far, this year and has nearly re-tested the lows of last year's candle. The Momentum indicator remains elevated at an all-time extreme on this timeframe.

At the very least, bulls will have to push the price above the 150.00 level and hold it there to coax investors into putting their money in equities in the near-term...otherwise, we'll continue to see volatile intraday swings, or even a much bigger correction in equities if price falls and holds below the 110.00 level.


UPDATE: Monday August 11 @ 1:11 pm EDT ~ As shown on the 60-day 60-minute chart below of SPX:VIX, today's intraday rally is in the process of filling the gap down from July 31st. However, it has left a gap up from today's open. All prior gaps have eventually been filled on this timeframe, so I'd presume today's will be filled at some point, as well...so the 120.00-110.00 level will need to hold as major support if any serious rally could resume after any gap-fill.


Saturday, 2 August 2014

Moving from Conflict to Peace and Beyond

Conflicts arise by any number of means...bullying, aggression (physical, emotional, psychological), threats, passive withdrawal, cyber-hacking, ostrasizing, wars...all leading to chaos.

All affected parties must have a genuine desire to end conflicts. To simplify this process, all parties must know and agree upon what kind of long-term, mutually-beneficial, synergistic relationship that they wish to co-create and maintain...one which is single-minded in its purpose and, at the same time, multi-servicing in its actualization. From that end-game perspective, solutions and actual resolutions can be created, resulting in contentment, harmony, peace, and enlightenment. All parties (and the new partnership) can then ascend to Maslow's highest form of basic human needs...that of self-actualization.

The alternative is a guarantee that there will be no peace...no ascension to self-actualization.


On a personal level, if you live your life without knowing your life purpose and values, it becomes a wandering, chaotic, and repetitive generality on the road to mediocrity.

Your life can, however, be meaningful, fulfilling, have a purpose, and have value for you and for others. Are you ready to discover yours, live the life you want and self-actualize along the way? What's present when you're at your best? What will make this happen? How can that be achieved?

Basically, life consists of experiencing many new things. Then, learning from those, we develop new ways to increase our contentment with our lives...one of the perks of growing older. How you interpret and learn from those experiences, along with being intimate with your life purpose and values, will shape your next adventures. Aren't you worth it to be as content as possible with your successes along the way?

"I don't mind getting older as long as the cakes keep getting bigger."
--Author Unknown

Thursday, 31 July 2014

Japan's Nikkei at H&S Major Resistance

As shown on the following Weekly chart of the Nikkei E-mini Futures Index, price has now reached a potential Head & Shoulders major resistance level.

Failure to hold above the 15500 level may see price plunge back down to the neckline at 14000. A break of that level with conviction puts the H&S pattern target at 11500.


Stay Buckled Up...More Volatility Ahead as July Closes!

My last post on the SPX:VIX ratio refers. I mentioned that price on the Weekly ratio chart below may retest the 130.00 level and then rally. On Thursday of this week, price not only retested 130.00, but it blew right below to close around the 110.00 major support level.

Momentum has dropped below the zero level, indicating further weakness may be ahead.


The Monthly chart below of the SPX:VIX ratio shows that a massive outside bearish engulfing candle has now formed on the July candle (to close out this month) and that Momentum has also dropped below zero on this timeframe...also signalling we may see further weakness ahead.

The question is whether we see weakness continue and accelerate on Friday and next week, or whether we see price fluctuate wildly to consolidate or bounce and resume its upward trek for awhile before a potential next leg down.


The following Daily chart of the SPX:VIX ratio shows that Momentum has dropped to a very low level on this timeframe, which has typically been followed by some kind of consolidation or bounce...one to watch in the days ahead for possible clues on market direction and conviction.


Price action on the Dow 30 has seen a break below both a 60% Fibonacci fanline and rising channel from the 2013 breakout, as shown on the Daily chart below.


Price on the SPX has dropped to the 50% Fibonacci fanline and bottom of the rising channel from the 2013 breakout, as shown on the following Daily chart.


Price on the RUT has dropped below the 60% Fibonacci fanline and and well below the bottom of the rising channel from the 2013 breakout, as shown on the following Daily Chart.


Failure of the Dow and RUT to reclaim their respective channels, and failure of the SPX to remain within its channel will likely see further weakness develop in these three Major Indices...stay tuned for further intraday volatile price swings either way!

Saturday, 26 July 2014

Price Action in the SPX:VIX Ratio Still Volatile...

Further to my last post on the SPX:VIX ratio, price is still consolidating and we're awaiting a break one way or the other (above 180.00 or below 110.00).

Meanwhile, volatile swings continue, pushing down record-high Momentum levels...a drop below the zero level (see Weekly chart below) could see a break of this weekly uptrend begin to the downside (around the 110.00 price level). However, we may see a retest of the 130.00 level on the pretext of a major breakdown followed by a surge in price action.

Buckle up!


Friday, 25 July 2014

The Shanghai Shuffle 'n Surge

China's Shanghai Index has been quietly rallying since it approached the 2000 major support level once again in mid-June, as shown on the Daily chart of SSEC below. A recent surge has pushed price above the 200 MA, while the RSI, MACD, and Stochastics indicators remained above the zero levels and continued to rise.

Near-term support sits around 2090...a hold above this level should see price continue to rally.


The following Daily ratio chart of SSEC:SPX shows a recent firming at 3-year lows and a minor push above the 50 MA (at 1.053), with rising RSI, MACD, and Stochastics above the zero level.

Near-term support sits around 1.050...a hold above this level should see price continue to strengthen against the SPX.


The following Daily ratio chart of SSEC:EEM shows a recent firming at 3-year lows below the 50 MA, while the RSI, MACD, and Stochastics remain below the zero level.

Near-term resistance sits around 47.50...a break and hold above this level should see price continue to strengthen against EEM. However, it has yet to signal that it will outperform the EEM, even though it's giving the impression that it may.


We'll see whether traders continue to hold their long positions in the SSEC for any sustained length of time or whether this was simply a short-term technical trading opportunity off a triple-bottom formation in May. Monitoring the two ratio charts above, along with their indicators, should help to clarify any continued serious strength in this index.

Friday, 18 July 2014

Canada's Inflation Rate for June 2014 Increased to 2.4%...Trend or Anomaly?

Canada's inflation rate continued to rise from 2.3% in May to 2.4% in June, as reported today by Statistics Canada.

Is this the continuation of a longer-term trend, or simply temporary? Time will tell.


As I mentioned in my post of June 20th, a break and hold below 1.065 for the USD/CAD Forex pair may cause some concern for the Bank of Canada. That level was hit last week, as shown on the following 10-Year Weekly chart before it bounced and retested a 40% Fibonacci level at 1.08 and declined to its current level 1.0736 as I write this during Friday's trading session.

This is a chart worth watching, along with my chart posted overnight of GOLD, to watch for a break and hold of one of these resistance or support levels...higher GOLD prices may include a strengthening of the Canadian Dollar against the U.S. Dollar.