A continued rally in the equity markets is really dependent on continued leadership in Technology, as well as a recovery in Small-Caps.
The following Weekly comparison chart of the Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Indices shows that, from the 2009 lows, Technology has led the overall rally, for the most part, and, particularly, since early this year when the spread has widened considerably between the NDX and the others.
The following 60-day 60-minute comparison chart of these 4 Indices shows the NDX approaching this year's high, while the RUT has the furthest to go to reach that point. I'd watch for any build in volumes in the NDX and the RUT on, either a rally, or any decline from this point...to confirm a commitment in sentiment, one way or the other.
The declining momentum indicator on the following 60-day 60-minute ratio chart of SPX:VIX is not confirming this latest rally in the SPX from August 11th.
Any low-volume push higher in the NDX and RUT, combined with weakness in the SPX may indicate a loss of appetite for equities in the near-term. Price on this ratio chart has pushed above the near-term resistance level of 150.00 (mentioned in my post of August 11th). Failure to hold this level will likely see Monday's gap-up filled. A break and hold below the 110.00 level may see a much larger-scale correction in equities begin...hence, the importance of volume commitment, either way, in the NDX and RUT.
Each candle on the SPX:VIX ratio chart below represents one year. I last wrote about this ratio pair on July 31st.
You can see at a glance that price action has been extremely volatile, so far, this year and has nearly re-tested the lows of last year's candle. The Momentum indicator remains elevated at an all-time extreme on this timeframe.
At the very least, bulls will have to push the price above the 150.00 level and hold it there to coax investors into putting their money in equities in the near-term...otherwise, we'll continue to see volatile intraday swings, or even a much bigger correction in equities if price falls and holds below the 110.00 level.
UPDATE: Monday August 11 @ 1:11 pm EDT ~ As shown on the 60-day 60-minute chart below of SPX:VIX, today's intraday rally is in the process of filling the gap down from July 31st. However, it has left a gap up from today's open. All prior gaps have eventually been filled on this timeframe, so I'd presume today's will be filled at some point, as well...so the 120.00-110.00 level will need to hold as major support if any serious rally could resume after any gap-fill.
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My last post on the SPX:VIX ratio refers. I mentioned that price on the Weekly ratio chart below may retest the 130.00 level and then rally. On Thursday of this week, price not only retested 130.00, but it blew right below to close around the 110.00 major support level.
Momentum has dropped below the zero level, indicating further weakness may be ahead.
The Monthly chart below of the SPX:VIX ratio shows that a massive outside bearish engulfing candle has now formed on the July candle (to close out this month) and that Momentum has also dropped below zero on this timeframe...also signalling we may see further weakness ahead.
The question is whether we see weakness continue and accelerate on Friday and next week, or whether we see price fluctuate wildly to consolidate or bounce and resume its upward trek for awhile before a potential next leg down.
The following Daily chart of the SPX:VIX ratio shows that Momentum has dropped to a very low level on this timeframe, which has typically been followed by some kind of consolidation or bounce...one to watch in the days ahead for possible clues on market direction and conviction.
Price action on the Dow 30 has seen a break below both a 60% Fibonacci fanline and rising channel from the 2013 breakout, as shown on the Daily chart below.
Price on the SPX has dropped to the 50% Fibonacci fanline and bottom of the rising channel from the 2013 breakout, as shown on the following Daily chart.
Price on the RUT has dropped below the 60% Fibonacci fanline and and well below the bottom of the rising channel from the 2013 breakout, as shown on the following Daily Chart.
Failure of the Dow and RUT to reclaim their respective channels, and failure of the SPX to remain within its channel will likely see further weakness develop in these three Major Indices...stay tuned for further intraday volatile price swings either way!
Further to my last post on the SPX:VIX ratio, price is still consolidating and we're awaiting a break one way or the other (above 180.00 or below 110.00).
Meanwhile, volatile swings continue, pushing down record-high Momentum levels...a drop below the zero level (see Weekly chart below) could see a break of this weekly uptrend begin to the downside (around the 110.00 price level). However, we may see a retest of the 130.00 level on the pretext of a major breakdown followed by a surge in price action.
China's Shanghai Index has been quietly rallying since it approached the 2000 major support level once again in mid-June, as shown on the Daily chart of SSEC below. A recent surge has pushed price above the 200 MA, while the RSI, MACD, and Stochastics indicators remained above the zero levels and continued to rise.
Near-term support sits around 2090...a hold above this level should see price continue to rally.
The following Daily ratio chart of SSEC:SPX shows a recent firming at 3-year lows and a minor push above the 50 MA (at 1.053), with rising RSI, MACD, and Stochastics above the zero level.
Near-term support sits around 1.050...a hold above this level should see price continue to strengthen against the SPX.
The following Daily ratio chart of SSEC:EEM shows a recent firming at 3-year lows below the 50 MA, while the RSI, MACD, and Stochastics remain below the zero level.
Near-term resistance sits around 47.50...a break and hold above this level should see price continue to strengthen against EEM. However, it has yet to signal that it will outperform the EEM, even though it's giving the impression that it may.
We'll see whether traders continue to hold their long positions in the SSEC for any sustained length of time or whether this was simply a short-term technical trading opportunity off a triple-bottom formation in May. Monitoring the two ratio charts above, along with their indicators, should help to clarify any continued serious strength in this index.