Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts and comments in my Blog (posted in Eastern Time) represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of markets...
*World Indices *U.S. Indices *Futures *U.S. Equities & Sectors *ETFs *Commodities *Forex
...an expanded version of the "Observations" section in my private Daily Trading Journal.

*** N.B. to my readers: Although I stopped trading in July 2013, I still take a peek at the markets now and then and post the occasional article here on my Blog.
NEW SERVICE: I'm pleased to announce the launch of my new service as a Certified Professional Life Coach...please check out this page for details and updates.

weekend

weekend

EVENTS

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS
* Wed. March 4 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Boook
* Fri. March 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Unemployment Rate & Jobs & Earnings Data
* Wed. March 18 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Announcement & 2:30 pm ET ~ Chair Press Conference & FOMC Forecasts

Tuesday, 24 February 2015

The Line-in-Sand Level for SPX:VIX Ratio

150.00 is the Bull/Bear Line-in-Sand level for the SPX:VIX ratio as shown on the Daily chart below.

Price closed today (Tuesday) at 154.53...failure to hold 150.00 could see a serious correction in equities and possible break of the critical 60.00 level, which has been threatened numerous times since mid-October 2014.

Momentum has been choppy and rising tentatively since mid-January of this year, but has yet to make a new all-time high. Price has definitely not made an all-time high on this ratio, and is not confirming the all-time high set on the SPX, as shown on the second Daily chart. As well, momentum on the SPX has also been choppy and rising tentatively since mid-January of this year, but has yet to make a new all-time high. These three observations tell me that, although the SPX remains in uptrend, it is rising in a choppy, tentative and fragile manner at current levels. Furthermore, the SPX will reach a major external Fibonacci level (161.8%) at 2138, where we may see some major profit-taking occur on rising volatility.

SPX:VIX Daily Ratio Chart

SPX Daily Chart

Wednesday, 11 February 2015

Homebuilders Sector at a Critical Level

The following Daily chart of the Homebuilders Sector (XHB) shows, that it reached a new 3-year high today (Wednesday), but not a new closing high. However, the RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators are not yet confirming a move higher. Note the high volume activity since the beginning of this year...signalling major rotation in and out of this sector, perhaps, in readiness for a big move one way or the other.


When compared with the Financials Sector (XLF), the following Daily ratio chart of XHB:XLF shows that the XHB weakened from the beginning of 2013 until mid-October 2014, while XLF outperformed. At the moment, price has bumped up against major resistance at 1.50 and the RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators are not confirming another move up yet, even though we now have a bullish Golden Cross of the moving averages. We may see a retest, first, of these averages around the 1.40/38 level before the next major move is established.


When compared with the S&P 500 Index ($SPX), the following Daily ratio chart of XHB:$SPX shows that the XHB weakened from mid-2013 until mid-October 2014, while the $SPX outperformed. At the moment, price has bumped up against major resistance at 0.0175 and the RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators are not confirming another move up yet, even though we now have a bullish Golden Cross of the moving averages. We may see a retest, first, of these averages around the 0.0165/60 level before the next major move is established.


Since the "continued recovery" in the U.S. is seen to be dependent, in part, on strong homebuilding activity, it may be worth measuring its "strength" against the above sector and index over the near and longer terms...I wouldn't be surprised to see some weakness of the XHB against these in the short term.

Wednesday, 28 January 2015

On Vacation

As of today, I'm on vacation for one to two weeks, so no posts until then. Best of luck with your trading in the meantime!


Tuesday, 27 January 2015

Gold Rush or Dump?

A break & hold below 1270/60 on Gold could send it tumbling (quite hard this time) to 1150 or lower (ultimately 1000).

1314 is the near-term resistance level to overcome before running into major resistance at 1550, in my opinion, (based on my analysis of price, Fibonacci, channel, and volume profile data), as shown on the 5-Year Weekly chart below.


Saturday, 24 January 2015

Where Has Money Been Invested This Year?

See for yourself...

The following Year-To-Date percentage gained/lost graphs of World Markets are presented without individual comment.  A general observation is that money has begun to flow into non-U.S. markets. I'd also add that fund managers will likely be looking to top up their accounts for January's month-end...as such, we may not see new trends emerge until February.

Thursday, 22 January 2015

Possible Bounce in Store for Euro

Further to my recent posts here and here, the EUR/USD Forex pair has reached a potential (double Fibonacci) support level between 1.1205 and 1.13, as shown on the following Weekly chart. A possible bounce is in store for the Euro.

Failure to begin stabilizing at this level and reclaim the major resistance level between 1.19 and 1.2125 (seen pre- and post-2007/08 financial crisis) could send the Euro plunging down to the 2000 lows of 0.8227. I can't imgine that's what Mr. Draghi has in mind with his ECB QE policy announcment earlier today...although stranger things have happened.


Wednesday, 21 January 2015

US $ At An "Interesting" Level

USD hit major price and double-Fibonacci resistance at 93.00, as shown on the following Weekly chart. A break and hold above that level could prove "interesting" for other world currencies (Euro, Canadian $, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, etc.)...(at the time of writing this post, the Canadian $ is -1.83 at 80.77).

Volatility in currencies has certainly been the norm, of late.