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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

The Great Escape

The Great Escape

Events

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. Apr. 26 ~ 2-day FOMC Meeting Begins
* Wed. Apr. 27 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Fri. May 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. May 18 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Minutes
* Wed. June 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Tues. June 14 ~ 2-day FOMC Meeting Begins
* Wed. June 15 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Sunday, April 17, 2016

USD/CAD Forex Pair Overdue for a Bounce

The USD/CAD Forex pair is well overdue for a bounce at the median of a long-term regression channel and the 40% Fibonacci retracement level, as shown on the Monthly chart below.

The Canadian dollar is price-sensitive to the price of WTIC Oil, so I'd keep a close eye on its action following the inaction of the participating countries to lower oil supply at this weekend's Doha meeting...Oil is -2.21 at 39.50 as I write this post on Sunday evening.


P.S. I'd also keep a close watch on the banks and DB.

Saturday, April 09, 2016

On Vacation

I'll be on vacation as of this date, so I won't be posting much until late June (although I may slip the odd one in if time and circumstances permit).

In the meantime, I wish you all good luck in the markets!




Thursday, April 07, 2016

Financials ETF Looks Weak

In my post of December 29, 2015, I stressed the importance of the Financials ETF (XLF) in, potentially, propelling the SPX to an increase of 5-6% for 2016.

You can see from the Daily ratio chart below of XLF:SPX, that price weakened considerably afterwards and fell to new lows not seen since 2012. Price is attempting to stabilize above that low, but all three indicators are still in downtrend and display new "SELL" signals, and price action is still under the bearish influence of the Death Cross formation of the moving averages.

If price drops and holds below near-term support of 0.0105, we could see a significant drop in the SPX, likely to new lows for the year, as I mentioned on April 3.


Sunday, April 03, 2016

SPX:VIX Ratio Reaches a Critical Crossroads

Further to my posts of January 29 and February 17 (& March 3 update), price action on the SPX:VIX ratio has rallied and is now in between major support of 150 and major resistance at 160, as shown on the following monthly chart. The momentum indicator has also risen above the zero level and is hinting of higher prices to come at some point on this longer term timeframe.


Equity bulls will need to keep the price on this ratio above the 150 level, as well as break and hold above 160, and keep momentum above zero, in order to convince traders/investors to continue their buying spree to send the SPX to new all-time highs (currently at 2134.72, as shown on the following monthly chart of the SPX).

Otherwise, a drop and hold below these levels will see volatility return to the equity markets -- likely in a substantial manner -- to send them to, potentially, new lows for the year. It should be noted that the momentum indicator on this chart is not yet above zero and is still in a downtrend, so it is not yet confirming that higher prices are in store for the SPX...so, keep a close eye on the SPX:VIX ratio for signals.


Wednesday, February 17, 2016

New "Buy" Signals for Equities

* See UPDATE below...

New "BUY" signals have just formed on the RSI, MACD and PMO indicators for:

  • SPX:VIX ratio: Price still needs to cross and remain above the 100 level, as outlined in my post of January 29th, and, thus, is still aimless and directionless within the "Uncommitted Zone."


  • MSWORLD Index: The RSI is about to cross above the 50 "BUY" level, possibly by tomorrow (Thursday). Major resistance lies above at 1600, as also mentioned in the above post.


So, while we are now seeing fresh "BUY" signals on these charts, we'll need to see a convincing follow-through and a break and hold above these resistance levels to confirm that a new bull market is emerging in equities, especially in view of the economic weakness that was reported in the last Beige Book Report.

* UPDATE March 3rd:

We'll see if the newly penetrated 100 level holds as support now on the SPX:VIX ratio, as well as the 1600 level on the World Market Index, as shown on the following updated Daily charts of both. If so, it looks as though equity markets are in for a new bull run...possibly to new highs sometime this year. Otherwise, another failure of both of these levels will likely begin a new bear run to new lows.



Monday, February 08, 2016

Banks and Oil Don't Mix

As WTIC Crude Oil goes, so goes Deutsche Bank, as shown on the 5-Year Daily comparison chart below.


Right after the opening bell this morning, DB made a new 5-year low of 15.95, as shown on the Daily chart below. There's no confirmation of a reversal in sight, technically, yet for DB, although the RSI may be hinting at a bit of a slowdown in the plunge.


Meanwhile, Oil is trading at 30.06...1983 prices, as shown on the Monthly chart below.


Both DB and Oil have been especially weak since mid-2014 (DB began falling at the beginning of that year, so whether it was forecasting weakness in Oil is a matter for consideration)...two to watch to see if either gains any support in the near future, or continue their falling-knife action.

*P.S. You can read more regarding the woes facing Deutsche Bank here and here.

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Nikkei Index Teeters on the 2007/08 Brink

*See UPDATE below...

Japan's Nikkei Index is currently trading just above the 17,000 level as I write this post around 9:00 pm ET Tuesday and is down around 3.3% from yesterday's close. You can see from the Monthly chart below that this is around the same level just before the 2007/08 crash.


A drop and hold below 17,000 could spell another big plunge in this index and confirms what I mentioned in my post of January 29th. If it holds, this "island reversal" candle formation on the Daily chart below should produce some "interesting" results!


*UPDATE February 9th:

The above bearish "island reversal" candle formation has been confirmed. After last night's 918.86 point drop, the Nikkei Index now sits just above 16,000, as shown on the following Monthly chart.

Major support sits at 14,000, followed by 12,000.


At the moment (10:05 am ET), the USD/JPY Forex pair is trading at 115.22, as shown on the following Monthly chart.

Major support lies far below at 110.00, followed by 100.00.


The recent extreme moves in both the Nikkei Index and the USD/JPY Forex pair tells me that volatility is not yet over, and, in fact, may have just begun.

Friday, January 29, 2016

It's Now or Never For Bulls

Was today's (Friday's) world-market rally serious and sustainable, or simply a knee-jerk reaction to Japan's surprise NIRP (negative interest rate policy) announcement last night (including some shorter-term short-covering action) and "end-of-month window dressing" by fund managers?

Perhaps the following update to my last post will provide some further insight into that question, as I review a variety of markets.