- 6 Major Indices
- 9 Major Sectors
- Various World Markets
Friday, May 17, 2013
Money Flow for May Week 3
Further to my last Weekly Market Update, its subsequent Addendum, and my mid-Week Money Flow update, this week's update will look at:
No Inflation Last Month in Canada
Data released today (Friday) shows that inflation dropped last month in the Canadian Core CPI and CPI, as shown on the graphs below.
I don't think that Canada has to worry about the BOC raising interest rates any time soon. The USD/CAD forex pair is well above parity, as shown on the Weekly chart below. With Bollinger Bands widening, we may well see prices push above near-term resistance.
Furthermore, Gold is down again today and is approaching the last wing low, as shown on the Weekly chart below. We may well see momentum generate a push much lower (through very thin volumes, as highlighted in the Volume Profile along the right side of the chart) down to around 1150, as I've written about in previous posts.
I don't think that Canada has to worry about the BOC raising interest rates any time soon. The USD/CAD forex pair is well above parity, as shown on the Weekly chart below. With Bollinger Bands widening, we may well see prices push above near-term resistance.
Furthermore, Gold is down again today and is approaching the last wing low, as shown on the Weekly chart below. We may well see momentum generate a push much lower (through very thin volumes, as highlighted in the Volume Profile along the right side of the chart) down to around 1150, as I've written about in previous posts.
"Protection" via the U.S. $
Somebody's loading up on U.S. $...a forecast of things to come (e.g., a correction in stocks)?
Thursday, May 16, 2013
More Weak Economic Data...My 2-Cent Opinion
More weak economic data was released today (Thursday), as shown on the graphs below.
Isn't this just another signal (in addition to previous weak data) that the Fed's monetary/economic stimulus policies of low interest rates and bond-buying program is not having the effect that it desired? The only effect seems to be a higher stock market, which is in the green, once again (and at/near all-time highs), as I write this at 11:30 am.
I wonder if economics will ever play a role in the stock markets again...as long as the markets have the Fed's tacit approval to carry on, I don't think so...therefore, data releases are irrelevant.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Money Flow to mid-Week
You can see from the percentage gained/lost graphs below which markets are leading in their rally, and which ones are leading in their decline, for the first three days of this week.
My only comment is that, so far, it's a "risk-on" week for equities, the U.S. $, most of the major EU countries, and some of the social media stocks, and it's a "risk-off" week for commodities, emerging markets, most BRIC countries, and 30-Year Bonds.
We'll see how they finish up the week.
My only comment is that, so far, it's a "risk-on" week for equities, the U.S. $, most of the major EU countries, and some of the social media stocks, and it's a "risk-off" week for commodities, emerging markets, most BRIC countries, and 30-Year Bonds.
We'll see how they finish up the week.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
GOOG vs. AAPL Ratio & AAPL vs. NDX Ratio
This Daily chart of the GOOG:AAPL ratio shows the outperformance of GOOG to AAPL from mid-2012. Price will be nearing a resistance level at some point in the not-too-distant future -- we'll see whether, as and if that occurs, the buying picks up in AAPL and gains any momentum. If not, then we'll continue to see the spread widen between these two technology giants (in favour of GOOG).
You can see from the next Daily chart of the AAPL:NDX ratio how AAPL is underperforming the NDX. The Momentum indicator is approaching the zero level, once more -- a drop and hold below zero will signal accelerating downside ratio momentum (and weakness) in AAPL against the NDX.
It would seem that the "cannibalization" of AAPL did, indeed, occur, as I first mentioned in my post of October 23, 2012, and subsequent posts.
You can see from the next Daily chart of the AAPL:NDX ratio how AAPL is underperforming the NDX. The Momentum indicator is approaching the zero level, once more -- a drop and hold below zero will signal accelerating downside ratio momentum (and weakness) in AAPL against the NDX.
It would seem that the "cannibalization" of AAPL did, indeed, occur, as I first mentioned in my post of October 23, 2012, and subsequent posts.
Monday, May 13, 2013
Currencies Signalling Weakness Ahead for China?
The Aussie $ is hugging support as I write this around 12:30 pm EST on Monday.
I'll need to see China's Shanghai Index advance and hold above the Daily 50 MA to, potentially, support any attempted rally in the AUD/USD forex pair.
A drop and hold below 1.00 on the AUD/CAD forex pair could signal harder times ahead for China, particularly if the above scenarios do not materialize, and as it faces increasing competition from other Asian exporters (Japan, especially, with its devalued Yen) .
That may, then, produce a drag on any further advancement in North American markets. As well, further weakness in Commodities may also produce the same effect, as I've mentioned in recent posts. You can see from the first chart above, that DBC (the Commodities ETF) is attempting to stabilize after experiencing considerable weakness this year, and, basically, since 2011...I'll be watching for any break and hold below its last Weekly swing low.
I'll need to see China's Shanghai Index advance and hold above the Daily 50 MA to, potentially, support any attempted rally in the AUD/USD forex pair.
A drop and hold below 1.00 on the AUD/CAD forex pair could signal harder times ahead for China, particularly if the above scenarios do not materialize, and as it faces increasing competition from other Asian exporters (Japan, especially, with its devalued Yen) .
That may, then, produce a drag on any further advancement in North American markets. As well, further weakness in Commodities may also produce the same effect, as I've mentioned in recent posts. You can see from the first chart above, that DBC (the Commodities ETF) is attempting to stabilize after experiencing considerable weakness this year, and, basically, since 2011...I'll be watching for any break and hold below its last Weekly swing low.
Saturday, May 11, 2013
Addendum to "Money Flow for May Week 2"
Further to, and as an addendum to my latest Weekly Market Update, I've provided the following percentage gained/lost graphs (without commentary) for the purposes of simply seeing, at a glance, where money flow has been directed this past week in various world markets (mostly a "risk-on" week, with some variances), and to see the "outliers"...that is, which markets gained or lost an exceptional amount compared to the others (e.g., What's up with Greece?).
Furthermore, you'll see the updated Year-to-date Daily charts below for the 6 Major Indices showing their channels and Fibonacci fan lines, as I mentioned in that weekly market post...clearly, the Nasdaq 100 and Utilities are the leading "outliers" to the upside and downside at the moment in relation to their channels and Fib fan lines.
Furthermore, you'll see the updated Year-to-date Daily charts below for the 6 Major Indices showing their channels and Fibonacci fan lines, as I mentioned in that weekly market post...clearly, the Nasdaq 100 and Utilities are the leading "outliers" to the upside and downside at the moment in relation to their channels and Fib fan lines.
Friday, May 10, 2013
Money Flow for May Week 2
Further to my last Weekly Market Update and its subsequent Addendum, this week's update will look at:
- 6 Major Indices
- 9 Major Sectors
- Number of Stocks Above 20/50/200-Day Moving Averages
- Various World Markets
- N.B. Please click this link to see my Addendum post to this one for further Weekly analysis
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
Tuesday's Decline in Consumer Habits and Optimism -- (Would the Fed ever back-stop consumer loan defaults?)
Data released today (Tuesday) shows a drop in Week-to-week and Year-to-year Store Sales, as shown below...we'll see if this weakness persists in the weeks ahead.
Further data today also showed a drop in Consumer Economic Optimism and in Consumer Credit, as shown on the graphs below.
It's interesting to note that consumers have been borrowing at a higher value level in 2012 and 2013 than they were in the years leading up to the financial crisis. Any increase in loan rates from the banks could lead to defaults and pose a problem for those institutions. If the amount of loans continues to decrease, we may see banks raise rates to compensate for any losses that may be incurred in revenues...that could then spawn such defaults.
Not that the markets are paying attention to weak economic data anyway...but am mentioning this nonetheless.
***UPDATE May 9, 2013: Data released today shows a rise in Mortgage Delinquencies, as shown on the graph below...evidence that banks are already struggling with consumer defaults...if the above scenario were to play out, the banks would have added stress.
The Fed certainly has its hands full with its current Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program. No doubt, if the Fed weren't backing the banks on this matter, we wouldn't see house prices rising. The question then becomes, would the Fed begin to back consumer loan defaults if that became a problem? Where does it all end?
Furthermore, data released today shows that Wholesale Inventories rose, as shown on the graph below...confirming the above consumer data.
Further data today also showed a drop in Consumer Economic Optimism and in Consumer Credit, as shown on the graphs below.
It's interesting to note that consumers have been borrowing at a higher value level in 2012 and 2013 than they were in the years leading up to the financial crisis. Any increase in loan rates from the banks could lead to defaults and pose a problem for those institutions. If the amount of loans continues to decrease, we may see banks raise rates to compensate for any losses that may be incurred in revenues...that could then spawn such defaults.
Not that the markets are paying attention to weak economic data anyway...but am mentioning this nonetheless.
***UPDATE May 9, 2013: Data released today shows a rise in Mortgage Delinquencies, as shown on the graph below...evidence that banks are already struggling with consumer defaults...if the above scenario were to play out, the banks would have added stress.
The Fed certainly has its hands full with its current Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program. No doubt, if the Fed weren't backing the banks on this matter, we wouldn't see house prices rising. The question then becomes, would the Fed begin to back consumer loan defaults if that became a problem? Where does it all end?
Furthermore, data released today shows that Wholesale Inventories rose, as shown on the graph below...confirming the above consumer data.
Sunday, May 5, 2013
Brent Crude Oil vs. WTIC Light Crude Oil
The price of Brent Crude Oil and WTIC Crude Oil has been heading up, as shown on the following charts.
The question is, will the spread between Brent and WTIC begin to widen again, in favour of Brent, any time soon?
As shown on the last (ratio) chart, after breaking through near-term support, price is attempting to move up on positively-diverging indicators, to suggest that the spread may, in fact, widen. I'll be watching to see if the MACD histogram moves above zero, along with a positive signal-line cross-over.
The question is, will the spread between Brent and WTIC begin to widen again, in favour of Brent, any time soon?
As shown on the last (ratio) chart, after breaking through near-term support, price is attempting to move up on positively-diverging indicators, to suggest that the spread may, in fact, widen. I'll be watching to see if the MACD histogram moves above zero, along with a positive signal-line cross-over.
Friday, May 3, 2013
Addendum to "Money Flow for May Week 1"
Further to, and as an addendum to my latest Weekly Market Update, I've provided the following percentage gained/lost graphs (without commentary) for the purposes of simply seeing, at a glance, where money flow has been directed this past week in various world markets...certainly another "risk-on" week. We'll see if that momentum and sentiment continue over the next week(s).
Furthermore, you'll see the updated Year-to-date charts below for the 6 Major Indices showing their channels and Fibonacci fan lines, as I mentioned in that weekly market post.
Furthermore, you'll see the updated Year-to-date charts below for the 6 Major Indices showing their channels and Fibonacci fan lines, as I mentioned in that weekly market post.
Money Flow for May Week 1
Further to my last Weekly Market Update and its subsequent Addendum, this week's update will look at:
- 6 Major Indices
- 9 Major Sectors
- SPX:VIX Ratio
- Hypothetical Portfolio
- Copper
- Lumber
- Homebuilders ETF
- Emerging Markets ETF
- 30-Year Bonds
- Various World Markets (*N.B. These will be covered in a separate Addendum post because of space concerns in this post...please check my Blog at this link to see that one)
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