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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...

CLOSED

CLOSED
U.S. Government Shutdown Now In Effect

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Jan. 31 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Fri. Feb. 2 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Mon. Feb. 19 ~ U.S. markets closed for Presidents Day Holiday
* Wed. Feb. 21 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Mar. 7 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Tues. March 20 ~ 2-day FOMC Meeting Begins
* Wed. March 21 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events



Friday, January 19, 2018

U.S. Government Shutdown Looms...$7.8 Trillion at Stake

* See UPDATES below...

As Democrats threaten to shut down the government at midnight tonight (Friday) without passing the 2018 budget, $7.8 Trillion hangs in the balance (gains made since the 2016 Presidential election).

The following monthly charts show prices of the Dow 30, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite Indices as at 12:15 pm ET today, with the blue horizontal line marking election-day prices.

A lot of investments (including pension funds and 401K accounts) in the U.S. stock markets are at stake...stay tuned for what market chaos may await next Monday.

If only my ancient crystal ball had come with automatic upgrades...👀






Source: ZeroHedge.com





* UPDATE @ market close...

The S&P 500, Nasdaq Comp, and even the Russell 2000, made new all-time high closes today, while the Dow 30 closed at its high of the day (just 44.13 points shy of its all-time closing high), as shown on the following daily charts.

Midnight approaches with no deal struck in the Senate yet...





* UPDATE January 20 (just minutes after midnight)...

And, so a shutdown begins, as Democrats voted against a bill to continue funding government spending...there's no indication as to when this might be resolved.

It's interesting to note that members of Congress do, however, continue to receive their pay during these shutdown events.

U.S. stock market reaction should be "interesting" on Monday.




Welcome to your first year in office, Mr. President!



***************

This White House statement has just been released...


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Source: SlopeofHope.com
FYI: Number of days of government shutdowns under prior administrations...

















Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Deutsche Bank Struggles Near Major Resistance

Deutsche Bank (DB) has never recovered from its meteoric plunge during the 2007/08 financial crisis. It's currently facing major resistance at the confluence of price and the upper edge of a long-term downtrending channel, as shown on the monthly chart below.

It's critical for price to break through, and hold above, 20.00...otherwise, its future is in question.


And, this tweet just in from Bloomberg Markets...

Source: Bloomberg.com

BITCOIN'S Dramatic Fall From Grace

* See UPDATE below...

I first started writing about BITCOIN in September of 2017 (all of my articles on this crypto curency can be found at this link).

It has fallen to its 50% Fibonacci retracement level [measured from its all-time low of 4.2 (in February 2012) to its all-time high of 19,891.0 (in December 2017)], as shown on the following Monthly chart.


And, as I reported (in the snippet below) on December 24, 10,000 represents a major support level, formed by a downward-sloping neckline of a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern. It spiked below 10,000 on Tuesday to a low of 9,949.4 before bouncing a bit to its current price of 10,967.

If BITCOIN breaks below 10,000 (again) and holds (as well as the 50% Fib level of 9,947.6), we could see a dramatic and swift plunge in price. A measured move of such a break would send it back to its all-time low.

This crypto currency is no stranger to volatility, so anything is possible...so,buckle up!


And, this report (January 16) from Reuters...

Source: Reuters.com

* UPDATE January 17 @ 1:42 pm ET...

Price is still shaky and volatile on BITCOIN, as it dropped below 10,000, once again, as shown on the daily chart below.


Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Dow 30 Index Hits 26,000 as U.S. Stocks Gain $7.8 Trillion in Value Since 2016 Election

* See UPDATES below...

TODAY'S NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS:
  • the Dow 30 Index spiked above 26,000 briefly today (Tuesday), as shown on the following Monthly chart
  • the S&P 500 Index spiked briefly above 2800, as shown on the following Monthly chart
  • the Nasdaq Composite Index spiked briefly above 7300, as shown on the following Monthly chart
  • ...amid reports that measurements of the Wilshire 5000 Index indicate that U.S. stocks gained roughly $7.8 Trillion in value since the November 8, 2016 Presidential election, as shown on the Daily chart below.

As I mentioned in my post of January 11 regarding the Dow, major support sits at 25,125 and major resistance lies at 26,702 (two external Fibonacci retracement levels)...anything can happen in between in the coming weeks.





As an aside, the President is in "excellent health," as reported in a lengthy and detailed White House press briefing today by his Physician, following a complete physical exam last week by Dr. Jackson and a team of 12 specialists, which should reassure markets...if anyone was previously concerned (other than some media pundits and "arm-chair psychiatrists" who have repeatedly questioned his fitness, ad nauseam...it's time to report the "real" news, folks, not imaginary news based on pure speculation and hypotheticals...Americans deserve honest, unbiased news, based on facts).




Watch the full White House Press Briefing (including Dr. Jackson's report and interview)...



And, a bit of humour thrown into the mix...


* UPDATE January 17 @ 12:55 pm ET...

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Will GE Ever Recover?

GE looks to be in trouble, as it has failed to hold onto gains made after the 2008/09 financial crisis and has fallen well below longer-term major support.

However, it has just risen above a major price and Fibonacci retracement resistance level (18.66), as shown on the following Monthly chart. It will need to hold above this level and gain strength to reach its next (price) resistance level around 21.40, and, ultimately, its next Fib level at 26.65, or higher.

Watch for any increases in volumes on such a rally to confirm a potential comeback. Otherwise, it may just be a temporary dead-cat bounce.


Will U.S. Banks Outperform the S&P 500 Index in 2018?

* See UPDATE below...

The following Monthly chart of the Financial Sector (XLF) shows that it has been on a strong rally since mid-2017. It's approaching major resistance around the 30.00-31.00 level (prior all-time high and double Fibonacci retracement levels).


The following Monthly chartgrid of XLF and five of the major U.S. bank stocks (GS, C, JPM, BAC & MS) shows, at a glance, which of these stocks has, either, outperformed and made a new all-time high, or, underperformed XLF.


The following Monthly ratio chart of XLF:SPX shows that price broke out above its first major resistance level of 0.0103 (confluence of price and its 40% Fibonacci retracement level) at the end of 2017.

The next major resistance is around 0.0115 (confluence of price and its 50% Fibonacci retracement level).


Given what I said in my post of January 12 ("...the SPX may see some whip-saw action in the coming days/weeks..."), XLF may continue to outperform the SPX for, potentially, some time -- perhaps the first couple of quarters this year -- until we see further clarity of the Fed's intentions (short and longer term) regarding interest rate increases, as well as further developments in the November U.S. mid-term Congressional election, by the third quarter.

If so, keep an eye on whether:
  •  XLF can continue its push to spike through, and hold above, 31.00
  • GS and JPM continue to maintain their upward momentum, 
  • C, BAC and MS can strengthen their upward climb (all three have a long way to go to reach their prior all-time highs), and 
  • the XLF:SPX ratio can hold above 0.0103 and climb higher

* UPDATE January 21...

Continuing to watch XLF vs SPX...

Will the XLF:SPX ratio hold above its Friday closing price of 0.0105 (now near-term support, as shown on the daily chart below)? This is a new key level, along with its longer-term major support level of 0.0103, as noted above.

Keep an eye on the RSI, MACD and PMO technical indicators to see if they remain newly-bullish in support of a push higher for XLF.

SPX & XLF Monthly Price Comparison chart

SPX & XLF Weekly Percentage Comparison chart
(gains since Nov. 8, 2016 Presidential election)

XLF:SPX Daily Ratio chart