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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Winter

Winter

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. Jan. 31 ~ 2-day FOMC Meeting Begins
* Wed. Feb. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Fri. Feb. 3 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Feb. 15 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Retail Sales
* Wed. Feb. 22 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Mar. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Tues. Mar. 14 ~ 2-day FOMC Meeting Begins
* Wed. Mar. 15 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Friday, January 20, 2017

Happy 50th Birthday, Kellyanne Conway!...Woman of the Year?

Source: Wikipedia
Happy 50th Birthday, Kellyanne Conway - January 20, 2017

Inauguration of Donald Trump, 45th President of the U.S. - January 20, 2017

If I had a voice, I'd vote for Kellyanne Conway to be chosen as "Woman of the Year" as being the first woman to run a Republican general election presidential campaign (which was successful, no doubt in part, by her dedication, talent, hard work and respectful public demeanor)...and for her appointment as Counselor to President Trump. I offer my congratulations to her, and it's my hope that she will be a fair and strong advocate for women's rights and issues in the coming years within the new administration.

Thursday, January 19, 2017

U.S. National Debt: Will An Autopsy Be Done?

Then (January 19, 2008)...which was the beginning of the financial crisis, culminating in a catastrophic drop of the S&P 500 Index, along with other U.S. and foreign stock markets, to the lows of March 2009 (which was stemmed by U.S. government bailouts of the financial system)...


S&P 500 Index Monthly

Now (January 19, 2017)...


The question is...did the cost of the government bailout (including all attendant Federal Reserve monetary measures...and government fiscal policies/programs enacted, if any) produce the kind of economic results/benefits, to date, that it intended? In other words, did the U.S. get its due "bang for the buck?" 

It seems to me that it would be prudent for the new Trump administration to include such an analysis/autopsy so as to incorporate the conclusions and considerations when preparing forecasts as part of shaping new domestic and foreign economic policies and programs for the next four years. In other words, will the U.S. get its due "bang for the buck" by January 2021? How will elected Senate and Congressional officials be held accountable for those results and what kind of transparency will they allow with regard to those questions? And, what will the U.S. National Debt look like then?

Lots of questions, as we approach the U.S. Presidential Inauguration at noon tomorrow... 


Sunday, January 15, 2017

The "Arts"

Actress, Ms. Meryl Streep, attacked football and mixed martial arts at the 2017 Golden Globes as not being an "art." Will she include fencing next...or what about learning how to walk on artificial legs for the first time, or learning to use one's damaged brain after a stroke? All of these, and much more, are, indeed, an "art."

She and others need to stop attacking and start providing solutions and support to those less fortunate, in need, struggling, and alone in their quest to make a better life so, hopefully, they can, in turn, become self-sufficient and maybe also help others in the future. And, perhaps, a mixed martial artist also needs help to get started or continue in his/her craft in order to make a living.

No one should be judged or demeaned for trying to look after him/herself...maybe he/she will grow up to be President one day, as well. So, please don't shatter their dreams by degrading their efforts...you may be pleasantly surprised by what you discover about yourself and others along the way.

Sunday, January 01, 2017

Happy New Year 2017!

I'd like to say, "Thank you!" and to wish all of my readers, the hosts of all the websites who publish my articles, and those who generously provide a link from their trading Blog to mine, a very Happy New Year 2017!


2017: Canada Begins Its 150th Year!

Canada's 2016 New Year's Eve fireworks in Ottawa and across the country kicked off a year of celebrations to mark its 150th birthday in 2017 (its official birthday is July 1st).









Source: Wikipedia...

Saturday, December 31, 2016

2016 Shout-Out to Sir Andy Murray!

Source: Wikipedia...

2016 Market Wrap-Up: S&P 500 Index, SPX:VIX Ratio & USD

This post will outline how the S&P 500 Index and the SPX:VIX Ratio performed throughout 2016 and how they ended the year. It will also take a look at where the US Dollar Futures Index finished up.

S&P 500 Index


The following four charts of the S&P 500 Index will depict how 2016 ended, on a yearly, quarterly, monthly, and weekly basis.

Each candle on Chart #1 represents a period of one year.

After breaking out to all-time highs and above major resistance, the 2016 candle closed near its high, after re-testing last year's low and the close and open of the 2013 and 2014 candles, respectively. It would appear that, after shaking out short-sellers, the bulls are firmly in control of upward momentum. We'll see if the Momentum indicator makes a new high on the 2017 candle...a distinct possibility, if price can remain above major support at 2100. If price drops to that level, we'll see a rise in volatility, and, if price drops and holds below that level, volatility will rise drastically.

Chart #1 SPX Yearly

Each candle on Chart #2 represents a period of one quarter.

The Q4 candle closed in its upper 1/4, after re-testing the lows of Q3, as well as, what was major resistance, now major support. I'd like to see the Momentum indicator begin to reverse its current downward drift, if price moves higher...otherwise, we could see weakness and an increase in volatility in the first quarter of 2017.

Chart #2 SPX Quarterly

Each candle on Chart #3 represents a period of one month.

The December candle closed in its upper 1/3, after re-testing November's close and highs. The Momentum indicator broke its downtrend (which began in 2014), but has failed to make a new swing high. This signals that we'll likely see an increase in volatility in the medium term, until a new swing high is made on MOM.

Chart #3 SPX Monthly

Each candle on Chart #4 represents a period of one week.

The last week closed on a bearish engulfing candle, after re-testing the top Bollinger Band and prior all-time highs, once again. The Momentum indicator has broken slightly above its 2016 downtrend, but has yet to make a new swing high. This signals that we'll likely see an increase in volatility in the short term and lower prices down to and on either side of 2200, until serious buying resumes and a new swing high is made on MOM.

Chart #4 SPX Weekly

SPX:VIX Ratio


The following four charts of the SPX:VIX Ratio will depict how 2016 ended, on a yearly, quarterly, monthly, and weekly basis.

Each candle on Chart #5 represents a period of one year.

Price on this ratio closed near its all-time high and above major resistance at 150 on a massive bullish engulfing candle, after a hefty retreat down into the "Fragile Zone" this year. Volatility was enormous in 2016 and the Momentum indicator drifted slightly upwards, but has yet to make a new swing high. We'll see if the Momentum indicator makes a new high on the 2017 candle...a distinct possibility, if price can remain above major support at 150. If price drops to that level, we'll see a rise in volatility, and, if price drops and holds below 140, volatility will rise drastically.

Chart #5 SPX:VIX Yearly

Each candle on Chart #6 represents a period of one quarter.

The Q4 candle closed in its top 1/3 on a massive high wave candle. Although price was plagued by uncertainty, it finished relatively strong on this timeframe. Although the Momentum indicator drifted higher in 2016 from its lows in mid-2015, it has yet to make a higher swing high and dipped by the end of the year.

Chart #6 SPX:VIX Quarterly

Each candle on Chart #7 represents a period of one month.

The December candle closed near its low after briefly breaking out to new highs and is high-basing in the upper 1/3 of this year's candles. While the Momentum indicator broke out to a new swing high several months ago, it has yet to confirm December's brief (and failed) breakout.

Chart #7 SPX:VIX Monthly

Each candle on Chart #8 represents a period of one week.

The last week closed near the bottom of its large bearish candle, after briefly breaking out (and back into a long-term uptrending channel from the 2011 lows) the week before. Bollinger bands are tightening and the Momentum indicator has been making a series of lower highs this year on this timeframe...suggesting that serious longer-term, committed new buying has yet to make its way into the S&P 500 Index. Until it does, I think we'll see a rise in volatility, particularly if this ratio drops and holds below 150, and, especially, 140. Bulls will need to come out in full force to see it rally back into the rising channel above the 200 level...and be confirmed by a new MOM swing high on this short-term timeframe.

Chart #8 SPX:VIX Weekly

US Dollar Futures Index


Each candle on Chart #9 represents a period of one month.

The December candle closed in its upper 1/3 on a high wave candle...although, it's, technically, a bullish candle and closed higher than the prior month, it still represents indecision on this timeframe, after breaking out to new highs this year. It's caught in between a 161.8% external Fibonacci retracement level at 100.54 (major support) and a 161.8% Fibonacci extension level at 103.47 (minor resistance). The next Fibonacci resistance level is 107.08 (a 200.0% external Fibonacci retracement level). Bollinger bands are still widening on this timeframe, and, if price can hold above 100.00, then it could very well rally to 107.00. However, it may be influenced by what happens in the S&P 500 Index and the SPX:VIX ratio, so it's worth monitoring how those behave in the short and longer terms, as outlined above.

Chart #9 US Dollar Monthly

CONCLUSIONS


2016 was a year of major volatility. In my Market Forecast for 2016, I had anticipated an increase of around 5-6% in equities, in general, as well as a rise in volatility. In fact, the S&P 500 Index had increased by 11.14% by mid-December, but closed at 9.54% by the end of the year.

2017 will, no doubt, hold a lot of uncertainty in relation to what happens with a new U.S. political administration and future economic and fiscal policies that may be enacted, what domestic and foreign events and policies develop, and what the Fed decides regarding interest rates. However, if we see general cooperation being maintained among government officials, we could see much less volatility next year (especially since the 2016 U.S. Presidential election is behind us)...and it may be a slower, steadier climb to higher prices in equity markets than we saw in 2016, along with a rising U.S. dollar. The timeframes on the above-referenced instruments are one of many methods that can be used to evaluate the effects from such future influences.

A LOOK INTO THE FUTURE


In closing, I'd mention that my Market Forecast for 2017 can be found at this link...and that my longer-term SPX Outlook to 2020 U.S. Presidential Election can be found at this link.

Of course, I realize that a forecast is, simply, one possibility. However, it can be a useful tool for any serious trader/investor to implement in order to track, assess and learn from one's future successes and failures on a short, medium and long-term basis. And, it can be modified/updated during its duration, depending on world and domestic influences at the time.


I wish you good fortune with all your endeavours in 2017!

Happy New Year 2017!

Saturday, December 24, 2016

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Four-Year Dearth in Retail Sales

The Retail Sales m/m report for November (includes auto sales) is being released on December 14 at 8:30 am...the consensus is 0.3%.

For around 10 years, from 2002 to 2013, average monthly sales were 1.0%. For the past 4 years, average sales have been less than 0.5%.

We'll see if this lackluster trend continues into 2017...or, whether Americans will be induced to open their wallets again by the recent stock market "Trump bump" and as the Trump economic and tax agendas become clearer and take shape.

Let's see if December's report is any rosier when it's released next month (January 13th @ 8:30 am).


* UPDATE December 14th:

Actual Retail Sales m/m print for November was 0.1%...lower than forecast...watch this space...


AAPL Poised For New Highs

If AAPL can break and hold above 120, we could see it soar to new highs. Watch for a bullish crossover of the MACD and PMO indicators and for the RSI to remain above the 50.00 level, as shown on the following Weekly chart.

Weekly AAPL

It's important that price hold above 110, as shown on the second Weekly chart below, as it represents a confluence of price and a 61.8% Fibonacci fanline major support level.

Weekly AAPL

Perhaps if AAPL executives can be persuaded to repatriate its considerable overseas cash to the U.S., in exchange for forgiveness of paying taxes on such a transaction by some kind of Congressional intervention (which includes, say, AAPL committing to invest in public infrastructure programs), you could see its stock break out to new highs next year. Maybe President-elect Trump's team can work some kind of magic in this regard.

Friday, December 09, 2016

Tech May Hold Key to Continued Santa Rally

From the close of November 8th to the close of December 9th (today), the Dow 30 Index has gained 1,424.11 points...a gain of 7.77% since the U.S. Presidential election.

Daily Dow 30 Index

Percentages Gained Since U.S. Presidential Election

In the meantime, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has finally broken out and closed at all-time highs, the Nasdaq 100 Index is still stuck in a 1 1/2 year trading range. We'll see if it plays catch-up to break out, and round out, a potential continued Santa rally into the end of this year...and, possibly, signal overall market strength for 2017, as I wrote about in my Market Forecast for 2017 post.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index

Weekly Nasdaq 100 Index