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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...


...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...




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Thursday, November 15, 2012

Sharp Decline in Philly Fed Manufacturing Index...a Warning

Data released today (Thursday) shows a sharp decline in the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, as shown on the graph below.

Since "changes in businesses' sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment,"  it's worth noting this sharp reversal of the small rally of recent months...particularly as it relates to the overall longer-term downtrend from the peak in March of 2011. As you can see, this downtrend is much steeper than the one from 2004 leading to the big decline in 2008/09...this may be forecasting a repeat of such a downturn in manufacturing.