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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

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Friday, October 26, 2012

Money Flow for October Week 4

Further to my last weekly market update, this week's update will look at:
  • 6 Major Indices
  • 9 Major Sectors
  • 3 Ratio Charts of the SPX:VIX, RUT:RVX, and NDX:VXN
  • A comparison of the SPX to other World Indices

 

6 Major Indices


All six Major Indices closed this past week lower, as shown on the Weekly charts below.


The 1-Week percentage gained/lost graph below shows that the Dow 30 lost the most, followed by the Dow Utilities, S&P 500, Russell 2000, Dow Transports, and Nasdaq 100.


9 Major Sectors


All nine Major Sectors also closed the week lower, as shown on the Weekly charts below.


The 1-Week percentage gained/lost graph below shows that the Materials Sector lost the most, followed by Energy, Financials, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Technology, Consumer Staples, and Health Care...with the "Defensive" Sectors, essentially, losing the least.


Generally, the Major Indices and Major Sectors are trading around/near their mid-Bollinger Band on the Weekly timeframe. The next level of support would be the lower Bollinger Band once they've reached an oversold condition on their Stochastics Indicator...several are in that vicinity already, but have yet to cross up with positive divergence. It may take such a situation to occur before any buying with conviction (and higher volumes) returns to these markets.

3 Ratio Charts of the SPX:VIX, RUT:RVX, and NDX:VXN


On a Daily timeframe, I'm watching for a break and hold below the last swing low (on the following three ratio charts comparing the SPX, RUT, and NDX with their respective Volatility Indices) to indicate that further selling/weakness is occurring on accelerating volatility momentum. The Momentum indicator is still in bearish territory below the zero level on all three charts, and price is currently in a "bear flag" formation.




SPX vs. Other World Indices


Depicted on the following Daily ratio charts are comparisons of the S&P 500 Index with other World Indices. I've drawn in support and resistance levels, as well as trendlines on price and the RSI, MACD, and Stochastics indicators, which are self-explanatory. The only comment I will make is a general observation that the SPX has weakened compared to all of them, either in the past few days, couple of weeks, couple of months, or from mid-2012. This is actually shown most clearly on the first chart which compares the SPX with the World Index...price has been in decline from mid-year, and currently remains beneath the 200 sma (red).

The big question is whether the SPX resumes a leadership role compared to these other indices in the next few days, weeks, or even months. We may see further comparative weakness until the U.S. election has taken place and the Fiscal Cliff issue resolved. Either way, it will be interesting to see where the SPX ends up by the end of this year as either a world index leader or a laggard.













Enjoy your weekend and good luck next week!