Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





* Wed. March 6 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Fri. March 8 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. March 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. April 10 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Friday, October 26, 2012

Money Flow for October Week 4

Further to my last weekly market update, this week's update will look at:
  • 6 Major Indices
  • 9 Major Sectors
  • 3 Ratio Charts of the SPX:VIX, RUT:RVX, and NDX:VXN
  • A comparison of the SPX to other World Indices


6 Major Indices

All six Major Indices closed this past week lower, as shown on the Weekly charts below.

The 1-Week percentage gained/lost graph below shows that the Dow 30 lost the most, followed by the Dow Utilities, S&P 500, Russell 2000, Dow Transports, and Nasdaq 100.

9 Major Sectors

All nine Major Sectors also closed the week lower, as shown on the Weekly charts below.

The 1-Week percentage gained/lost graph below shows that the Materials Sector lost the most, followed by Energy, Financials, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Technology, Consumer Staples, and Health Care...with the "Defensive" Sectors, essentially, losing the least.

Generally, the Major Indices and Major Sectors are trading around/near their mid-Bollinger Band on the Weekly timeframe. The next level of support would be the lower Bollinger Band once they've reached an oversold condition on their Stochastics Indicator...several are in that vicinity already, but have yet to cross up with positive divergence. It may take such a situation to occur before any buying with conviction (and higher volumes) returns to these markets.

3 Ratio Charts of the SPX:VIX, RUT:RVX, and NDX:VXN

On a Daily timeframe, I'm watching for a break and hold below the last swing low (on the following three ratio charts comparing the SPX, RUT, and NDX with their respective Volatility Indices) to indicate that further selling/weakness is occurring on accelerating volatility momentum. The Momentum indicator is still in bearish territory below the zero level on all three charts, and price is currently in a "bear flag" formation.

SPX vs. Other World Indices

Depicted on the following Daily ratio charts are comparisons of the S&P 500 Index with other World Indices. I've drawn in support and resistance levels, as well as trendlines on price and the RSI, MACD, and Stochastics indicators, which are self-explanatory. The only comment I will make is a general observation that the SPX has weakened compared to all of them, either in the past few days, couple of weeks, couple of months, or from mid-2012. This is actually shown most clearly on the first chart which compares the SPX with the World Index...price has been in decline from mid-year, and currently remains beneath the 200 sma (red).

The big question is whether the SPX resumes a leadership role compared to these other indices in the next few days, weeks, or even months. We may see further comparative weakness until the U.S. election has taken place and the Fiscal Cliff issue resolved. Either way, it will be interesting to see where the SPX ends up by the end of this year as either a world index leader or a laggard.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck next week!