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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

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...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...




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Sunday, October 14, 2012

Top-Down View of the S&P 100 Index

The following four charts show a top-down view of the recent breakdown of the S&P 100 Index (OEX). Each candle on the first chart represents a 1-month Options Expiry period, the second chart is a Monthly timeframe, followed by Weekly and Daily charts.

The close-up view on the Daily (fourth) chart shows that, not only has price broken below an intersecting uptrend and downtrend support level, but there are also trend breaks on the Stochastics, MACD, and RSI indicators after negative divergences formed in relation to a triple top on price. What was support has now become resistance. If it holds, we'll see further selling, likely to the lower trendline (which is roughly in line with the 200 sma), or lower. I'll be monitoring these indicators on the Weekly timeframe to see when they reach an oversold status to check where price is relative to the Daily 200 sma and lower trendline, and when any positive divergences begin to form.