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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Beach

Beach

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* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains
with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance

Monday, November 28, 2011

The "Thin Ice Zone"...YM, ES, NQ & TF

Below are 4-hour charts of the YM, ES, NQ & TF. I've marked the high and low of August 5th (white horizontal lines), which was the day that Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating. Since that time, price has repeatedly tested levels above and below the high and low, with a lot of gaps occurring at the market open inside this zone...it's become a level at which market uncertainty has accelerated.

I refer to this zone as the "Thin Ice Zone," and I've written about it in previous posts. It  has, basically, been a price magnet and has become a trendless zone. Until the markets exit this zone once and for all, with convincing volumes and any gaps filled in, it will remain this trendless and friendless, messy zone, inside which anything goes. At the moment, these e-mini futures indices are, technically, in a Death Cross bearish market formation on both this timeframe and the Daily timeframe. As such, they are subject to further bearish pressure until such a pattern is reversed, with conviction. Today, they advanced up to the 50 sma (red)...whether they continue upward remains to be seen.

Today, the Fitch rating agency affirmed its U.S. credit rating at AAA, but the outlook has been revised downward from stable to negative, as noted in this Reuters' article:





Below is a 1-day 1-minute percentage comparison chart of the S&P 500 Index with the VIX. After spiking down this morning, the VIX spiked back up to close the day in positive territory above today's open...a move higher (from the open) of around 0.64% on the day versus around 1.35% on the S&P 500 (a ratio of 47:53). Whether or not this is indicative of growing interest/accumulation in puts is something I'll keep a close watch on over the next days/weeks.


Below is a 4-hour chart of the VIX. Price closed just below the triangle uptrend line and October and November's TPO Profile POC, as well as the triangle apex that I mentioned in Friday's post...it ended a bit on the bullish side of things, compared with Friday's bearish move higher...however it is still trading well within the August 5th high and low (broken horizontal yellow lines), and, as such, is still producing huge intraday uncertain volatility...will see how this unfolds over the next days/weeks.