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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Paris

Paris

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
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IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* JCPOA - Will President Trump recertify the JCPOA on May 12?...stay tuned...May 8 the answer is "No"...US pariticipation in the deal
is scrapped...new sanctions coming for Iran and, possibly, for nations supporting Iran.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011

It rained on the markets today...hard...


The Daily charts below of the YM, ES, NQ & TF show that price closed down hard on high volumes and below the middle Bollinger Band today. The YM, ES & TF have been turned back by the 200 sma (pink) several times now, while the NQ is still being supported by its 200 sma. Price has yet to confirm an uptrend on this timeframe above immediate support, it is still under the influence of the Death Cross formation that I mentioned in my last post, and it is still subject to a resumption of further bearish downside movement until the positioning of the 50 & 200 smas are reversed with conviction. Also, with the VIX back above 35.50, it's likely we'll see further large and volatile moves while it remains above 25.00, as shown on the 4-hourly chart below.



Below is a chartgrid of the YM, ES, NQ & TF...each candle represents a one-month Options Expiry period. If history repeats itself, they could be readying themselves for a fall, similar to that in mid-2008 as indicated by the arrows. I'll be watching to see where the current candle closes on November 18th (OPEX) and where price goes from there.


I've written a number of posts over the past months on Japan's Nikkei Futures Index, NKD.  It has tended to trade roughly similarly to the 4 e-mini futures indices mentioned above since the earthquake in March this year. It also closed down hard today on high volumes and has closed below a rising channel for the second time, as well as its 50 sma (red), as shown on the Daily chart below. It did not rise as strongly from the beginning of October, and is considerably weaker than its American counterparts...one to watch, particularly it it breaks and holds below its next level of support at 8200.


The Opt. Exp. period chart below of the NKD shows where price may be relative to mid-2008...price has been sold off every time it tried to climb back above 10000 last year and this year. Again, we'll see where the current candle closes on OPEX November 18th.