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Gingerbread Town

Gingerbread Town



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Wednesday, November 09, 2011

It rained on the markets today...hard...

The Daily charts below of the YM, ES, NQ & TF show that price closed down hard on high volumes and below the middle Bollinger Band today. The YM, ES & TF have been turned back by the 200 sma (pink) several times now, while the NQ is still being supported by its 200 sma. Price has yet to confirm an uptrend on this timeframe above immediate support, it is still under the influence of the Death Cross formation that I mentioned in my last post, and it is still subject to a resumption of further bearish downside movement until the positioning of the 50 & 200 smas are reversed with conviction. Also, with the VIX back above 35.50, it's likely we'll see further large and volatile moves while it remains above 25.00, as shown on the 4-hourly chart below.

Below is a chartgrid of the YM, ES, NQ & TF...each candle represents a one-month Options Expiry period. If history repeats itself, they could be readying themselves for a fall, similar to that in mid-2008 as indicated by the arrows. I'll be watching to see where the current candle closes on November 18th (OPEX) and where price goes from there.

I've written a number of posts over the past months on Japan's Nikkei Futures Index, NKD.  It has tended to trade roughly similarly to the 4 e-mini futures indices mentioned above since the earthquake in March this year. It also closed down hard today on high volumes and has closed below a rising channel for the second time, as well as its 50 sma (red), as shown on the Daily chart below. It did not rise as strongly from the beginning of October, and is considerably weaker than its American counterparts...one to watch, particularly it it breaks and holds below its next level of support at 8200.

The Opt. Exp. period chart below of the NKD shows where price may be relative to mid-2008...price has been sold off every time it tried to climb back above 10000 last year and this year. Again, we'll see where the current candle closes on OPEX November 18th.