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Friday, November 18, 2011

How the YM, ES, NQ & TF closed out the Oct-Nov OPEX Period

Since the one-month October-November Options Expiry period just finished today, I thought I'd put up the chart below of the YM, ES, NQ & TF...each candle represents a one-month OPEX period. The YM, ES & NQ finished above the middle of the Bollinger Band, while the TF stayed below. If you combined the last two candles, you'd end up with a high wave spinning top, which represents indecision...as such, near-term resistance lies at the top of the current candle and support lies at the bottom of the prior candle for this time period. Whether or not these markets are at a similar point as indicated by the arrows and are set to drop, is currently up in the air. The current candle's volume was considerably less than the last OPEX period, which confirms a lack of conviction in either direction.

Below is a Weekly chartgrid of these four markets. Only the YM closed above the middle of the Bollinger Band...however, they all closed below their 50 sma (red) on a decidedly bearish note.

Below is a Daily chart of these four markets. Each one closed below the middle Bolling Band...the NQ closed below the 50 sma (red)...they basically low-based on low volume today after their large drop yesterday.

None of these charts is signalling a rise next week...however, we may see a bounce into the Thanksgiving holiday, if for no other reason than some short-covering during this shortened week. Any long-lasting bounce really must occur on increased volumes to signal bullish conviction...otherwise, I'd look for more volatile range trading within either of the last two OPEX candle's ranges.

Also, please see yesterday's post regarding an unresolved issue...which confirms what I've just said.