Today, the markets were held up by, basically, Technology, as shown on my ETFs graph below, and were held down by Banks and Financials.
Contrast the following two Weekly charts of the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) and the Financials ETF (XLF).
NDX has made a higher high this year over last year's high and is approaching its July 2011 lows...the rising 50% Fibonacci fan line held as support from its July decline, and the 38.2% line (which was support) is near-term resistance...it has advanced back above the 2007 highs this week.
XLF dropped below the neckline of a rising H&S formation in August of this year...it nearly reached its target of 10.50 before popping up last week and this week. XLF remains range-bound in the mid-2009 zone in between price levels of 13.00ish and 11.00ish.
The 8-day 10-minute percentage comparison chart below of the NDX and the XLF shows that the XLF has led the NDX on a couple of occasions recently on their rally that began on October 4th. The 2-day 2-minute close-up chart shows the switch-over in who was leading who the past two days. The XLF was quite a bit weaker today than the NDX, compared with the action on the first chart...whether or not this is signalling a possible reversal of this latest push up remains to be seen. It's something I'll be watching over the next few days.
It's been my view for quite awhile now, that the Financial sector will have to strengthen and come on board if the equities markets (Dow 30, S&P 500 & Russell 2000) are going to have a convincing advancement beyond their large ranges that they've been in since August.
Also, out of interest, I'll watch China's Financial ETF, (GXC)...It is just below a major resistance level of 65.00, which was support until it dropped below in September, as shown on the Weekly chart below. There was a huge spike up in volume last week (nearly as high as was put in when price broke below the highs in 2007 before beginning a large decline) as price pierced below a support level of 55.00. What price does in between these two levels could have some bearing on the U.S. Financials, so I'll check in on this one from time to time to see where price is going.
Welcome and thank you for visiting!
The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.
DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Aug. 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Fri. Aug. 14 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Wed. Aug. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Sept. 2 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Sept. 4 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Sept. 16 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events