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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

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Saturday, October 01, 2011

How the EUR/USD ended the 3rd Quarter of 2011

Each candle on the chart below of the EUR/USD represents a one-month Option Expiry period...this candle will close on October 21. Price on the current candle sits on the apex of a rough diamond formation in between the 50 sma (red) and the 200 sma (pink). A continuation of the bearish momentum could send it down to, firstly, 1.3ish, and, subsequently, to a more major support of 1.2ish (200 sma)...these levels are depicted more clearly on the next 2 charts.


Each candle on the next chart represents one yearly Quarter. The current Quarter closed decisively as a bearish engulfing candle and is the third bearish candle since the 3rd Quarter in 2008 (on the last 3 attempted rallies since the beginning of 2007)...this tells me there is no solid case on which to base a bullish argument for this currency pair and hasn't been since the 3rd Quarter of 1990 as price is back to that level, once again.


Each candle on the last chart represents one year. Price on the current candle is retesting last year's close and is currently in a descending triangle formation. Last year's long bottom tail has not been retested and lies in the vicinity of the 1.2 major support level. Should that level be breached on extreme weakness, I see the  next major support levels below that at 1.15 and 1.05.


***From my weekend analysis of Quarterly and Yearly charts of various instruments, it would appear that the markets are in for a rough ride for the next several years. I'll be keeping an eye on the VIX for additional clues in the months ahead...something I wrote about on September 12th of this year: http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/09/money-is-always-interesting-subject.html