The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index fell 1.0 percent in September on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, following a 1.4 percent decline in August and a 0.2 percent decline in July. In the last three months, the PCI has declined at an annualized rate of 10 percent per year. This rate of decline has been exceeded only in the deep recession of 2008/09, and equaled only once outside of a recession in March 2000. In other words, since June, trucking activity has been receding at a pace that would be expected to show up in other economic measures soon. According to report's statistical analysis, two or three more months like this would confirm an official recession."
Perhaps the markets will ignore this until after Christmas...they have, so far, today as they continue to gap up above "thin ice."
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Wednesday, October 12, 2011
"2 or 3 more months like this would confirm an official recession..."
I happened to read this report today on the Nasdaq/Economic Calendar site: