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Monday, September 26, 2011
Which way now, Captain?
The markets seem to have lost their way and are trying to find direction as shown on the 4-hour chartgrid below of the YM, ES, NQ & TF. They're stuck in an "orbit" around their trading range from August. Any attempts to break below have, so far, been thwarted...and the same on attempts to break out on the long side. It would appear that a major catalyst may be needed to move them one way or the other with conviction and on high volumes...and, no doubt, that would be some kind of major news event.
Further to my post last Tuesday, Copper pierced its H&S target of 3.15 in pre-market trading today and ended on a very long-tailed "hammer" just above a support level of 3.3 as shown on the Daily chart below. The health of "Dr. Copper" from here may help to determine the next direction of the equities markets. At the moment, it is much weaker than the equity markets, which may be a precursor of what is to come in those markets.
Further to my post last Thursday on the USD/CAD, attempts to push the US $ further up versus the Canadian $ have failed as shown on the Daily chart below. We'll see whether money begins to flow out of the US $ in any kind of meaningful way in spite of what the Golden Cross is signalling, or whether price simply consolidates before the buying resumes to its ultimate IH&S target of 1.05, and, as an inverse relationship, whether selling resumes in the equities markets.