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Tuesday, September 06, 2011

Is the glass half empty or half full?...

Below is a 4-hourly chartgrid of the YM, ES, NQ & TF. Overlayed on each chart are 2 regression channels. The longer downtrending channel runs from the beginning of May of this year for the YM, ES, & TF and began in late July for the NQ. The shorter uptrending channel began on August 8. I referred to this chart in last Friday's end-of-the-week post. After an overnight drop, price moved up today and is still trading in the lower one-half of both the longer and shorter regression channels on the YM, ES & TF, and is in the lower one-half of the shorter regression channel and in the upper one-half of the longer regression channel on the NQ.

With all the reports coming out this week (Beige Book tomorrow, Mr. Bernanke's and President Obama's speeches on Thursday, a switch-over to the December 2011 contracts for the 4 e-minis on Thursday, etc., we may see further non-commital range movement within the very large range established by the shorter regression channel until a breakout occurs with conviction in either direction. However, at the moment, the glass is generally half-empty for the YM, ES, NQ & TF until they are all above both channel "means." Until then, they are still in danger of more downward pressure, especially at the intersecting channel "means" on the YM, ES & TF, and the intersecting -1 deviation level of the longer channel and the "mean" on the shorter channel on the NQ...at the  moment, these price levels are 11345ish on the YM, 1180ish on the ES, 2190ish on the NQ, and 700ish on the TF.