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Thursday, September 22, 2011

USD/CAD...call me crazy, Part II

On June 16th of this year, I posted possible upside targets for the USD/CAD of 1.015 and 1.05:  http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/06/usdcad1015-eh105-ehcall-me-crazy.html

Since that time, price bounced around and eventually formed a larger upward-sloping IH&S pattern. The falling 200 sma (pink) held as resistance, as shown on the Daily chart below, until it broke above on August 8th, where it based until a further break and close occurred above the 1.00 (parity) level yesterday. Today marked three noteworthy events:
  • a close above the 1.015 level,
  • a breakout and close above the IH&S neckline, and
  • a Golden Cross of the 50 sma (red) above the 200 sma (pink)

Yesterday's and today's actions are important, in my view, because of the breakout of the August trading range that it was in since the infamous U.S. credit rating downgrade, today's Golden Cross event, and because of the reclaiming of parity by the U.S. $ with the Canadian $.

Price may pull back for a re-test of 1.015 (or even 1.00) before resuming a bounce to, ultimately, what turns out to be an IH&S target of 1.05.

This chart will be worthy of my attention, in addition to Copper (which I wrote about on Tuesday of this week), as a possible confirming indicator of what the equities markets may do over the ensuing days/weeks (e.g. strong U.S. $ vs. weak Copper and equity markets).