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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Late Summer

Late Summer

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Sept. 26 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Oct. 5 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Mon. Oct. 8 ~ Canadian markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday
* Thurs. Oct. 11 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Oct. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Oct. 24 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Tues. Nov. 6 ~ U.S. Midterm Elections
* Thurs. Nov. 8 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Thurs. Nov. 22 ~ U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday & NYSE closes early @ 1:00 pm on Fri. Nov. 23
* Wed. Dec. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. & Wed. Dec. 25 & 26 ~ Canadian markets closed for Christmas & Boxing Day Holidays
* Tues. Dec. 25 ~ U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day Holiday & close early @ 1:00 pm on Mon. Dec. 24
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance

Monday, January 09, 2012

Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey

The Bank of Canada released its latest Business Outlook Survey this morning. As referenced in the notes below (courtesy of www.Forexfactory.com), it's a leading indicator of economic health, affecting spending, hiring, and investment, and it can have predictive qualities regarding future economic conditions because the surveyed firms are selected in accordance with their composition of the nation's GDP.


The survey is shown in its entirety here: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/bos_winter2011.pdf

Highlights of the survey show that:
  • firms report an improvement in sales growth over the past year
  • firms are not expecting an increase in sales growth over the next 12 months, falling to just below zero
  • firms still plan to increase investment, but remain somewhat cautious
  • intentions to increase employment rose modestly
  • production capacity pressures are little changed
  • reports of labour shortages are essentially unchanged
  • firms expect input prices to rise at about the same rate
  • firms expect output prices to increase at a slower rate
  • inflation expectations continue to be concentrated within the Bank's inflation-control range of 1 to 3 per cent.
  • firms no longer report a net easing in credit conditions, which had tightened over the past three months due to an increase in borrowing costs
In a nutshell, businesses are anticipating a slower-to-zero sales growth for 2012 and tightened credit conditions...not a robust outlook for healthy growth.

Additionally, today's data released on Canadian Building Permits shows a decline, as shown on the graph below.


Data on the Canadian New Home Price Index is due for release this Thursday...it's an indicator worth watching over the next months, since it's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health...also, as I mentioned in my last post, forecasters have warned that Canada's 13-year housing boom has reached its end: http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2012/01/are-we-canadians-simply-pessimistic.html If Canada's housing bubble bursts (watch for early signs in Ontario and Quebec), all hell will break loose, in my opinion.

Toronto's Read Estate Index is currently trading near the 2008 highs before prices plunged, as shown on the Weekly chart below.


The 5-Day chart below shows price trading up against near-term resistance.