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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

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Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Sept. 26 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Oct. 5 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Mon. Oct. 8 ~ Canadian markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday
* Thurs. Oct. 11 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Oct. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Oct. 24 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Tues. Nov. 6 ~ U.S. Midterm Elections
* Thurs. Nov. 8 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Thurs. Nov. 22 ~ U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday & NYSE closes early @ 1:00 pm on Fri. Nov. 23
* Wed. Dec. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. & Wed. Dec. 25 & 26 ~ Canadian markets closed for Christmas & Boxing Day Holidays
* Tues. Dec. 25 ~ U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day Holiday & close early @ 1:00 pm on Mon. Dec. 24
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance

Sunday, January 08, 2012

Are We Canadians Simply a Pessimistic Bunch?

These excerpts are from an article printed by The Globe and Mail on January 6th:
"Canada is not technically in a recession, but to the vast majority of consumers, it feels like one.
Economists, Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada have been telling Canadians the country has been out of a slump since mid-2009, and is now well into a period of expansion. But Canadians see things differently. Despite the economy’s relative strong health in a world marked by tumult, they are the most pessimistic they’ve been in over a decade – and fully 70 per cent believe the nation is in a recession, according to an annual tracking poll released Thursday."

"There has certainly been an ample amount of economic news of late to trouble Canadians, including the fiscal and monetary crisis in Europe, volatility on capital markets, hints of a possible slowdown in China, rising oil prices and negative employment numbers in Canada in three of the past four quarters. And household debt has reached record levels in Canada, prompting Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to warn last month that “our greatest domestic risk relates to household finances.” Meanwhile, forecasters have warned that Canada’s 13-year housing boom has reached its end."

Here is a link to the article:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/growth/vast-majority-of-canadians-believe-country-is-in-recession/article2292215/

Some economists believe that the pessimism is just a reflection of world economic problems, since GDP numbers don't add up to recession at the moment. However, data released on January 6th showed that Canada's jobless rate rose for a third month in December, the longest advance in two years, to 7.5% from 7.4%, as reported by Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-06/canada-s-jobless-rate-rose-for-third-month-in-december-to-7-5-.html

The combination of this survey and rising jobless rate may, in fact, be a warning, this time, that a recession is coming to Canada.

Below are a series of charts/graphs which compare the S&P 500 Index with Canada's TSX Index (courtesy of www.Stockcharts.com).

The first chart represents one year...the SPX has rallied to a much greater extent during the fourth quarter of 2011...while the SPX has gained 0.31% during this one-year time period, the TSX is still in negative territory at -8.44%.


Taking a closer look at the third quarter of 2011, the next chart begins from October 3rd and shows that the SPX gained 16.25% from this date, and the TSX gained 8.33%.


The graph below begins on December 1st. The SPX gained 2.67% from that date, while the TSX only gained 0.62%.


The next chart begins last Tuesday. The SPX gained 0.06% from this date, and the TSX is down at -0.16%. The rate of deceleration on the TSX has accelerated on each subsequent day last week in comparison with the SPX, as depicted by the following 3 graphs.





Canada's stock market index, TSX, is still lagging that of the U.S. stock market index, SPX. It appears to be affected by outside influences (i.e. global issues) more than the SPX and may, therefore, be more subject to volatility. It was leading the SPX during the latter part of the first quarter of 2011, but was the first to signal weakness in April. December has been a weak month for the TSX, as has been the first week of January...something to keep an eye on to see if this weakness continues and whether it continues to accelerate...and whether it, ultimately, influences the SPX.