UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Sept. 22 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Oct. 1 @ 8:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data
* Fri. Oct. 8 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. Oct. 13 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data
* Wed. Oct. 13 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Thurs. Oct. 14 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data
* Fri. Oct. 15 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data
* Fri. Oct. 15 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment
* Fri. Oct. 15 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations
* Wed. Oct. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Weekly Support/Resistance Levels -- U.S. $, Bonds & Commodities
The U.S. $ is at a minor support level (major support is further below at 78.00), 30-year Bonds are at a major support level and have broken below their "diamond" pattern that has been forming, Gold is approaching major resistance, and Oil, Copper and Silver have reached fairly major resistance. If we see a breach of major support and sell-off in the U.S. $ and Bonds, then we should see Gold, Oil, Copper, and Silver blow through their respective resistance levels...ones to watch to see if recent downside and upside momentum continues, pauses, or reverses in the next few days ahead.
As shown on the two currency graphs below, money continued to flee the U.S. $ this past week (as it has for all of September, so far), and continued to flow into the Euro, Aussie $, British Pound, Swiss Franc, and Canadian $...ones to watch to see if this trend continues over the next days/weeks.
A continued flow into the Euro and the Aussie $ tells me that the European and Chinese financials/indices should also continue to strengthen, as detailed in my last post.
I had mentioned in my post of September 13th, that the SPX and RUT have room to go higher within their rising channels on their respective volatility ratio charts, as shown on the Daily charts below, but had run into near-term horizontal price resistance in the form of triple tops. On Friday, they both opened above this resistance level, but the SPX lost momentum and fell back down below, while the RUT managed to close above, albeit near its low of the day.
Should the SPX and RUT regain upside momentum in the next few days, we may then see a major breakdown in the U.S. $ and the 30-year Bonds, and a further push higher in Gold, Oil, Copper and Silver.
However, in closing and as a caution, I'd note that the following three Daily charts indicate that Stocks Above 20-50-200-Day Averages are near major resistance levels.
While there may be some further thrusts higher in equities, they may pull back soon (possibly around the next Friday's OPEX, or the end of September/3rd Quarter) before resuming any serious push higher...a scenario which should present itself on the above volatility ratio charts.