UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Oct. 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Tues. Oct. 26 @ 10:00 am ET - CB Consumer Confidence
* Fri. Oct. 29 @ 8:30 am ET - Core PCE Price Index m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 3 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Nov. 5 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Tues. Nov. 9 @ 8:30 am ET - PPI m/m & Core PPI m/m Data
* Wed. Nov. 10 @ 8:30 am ET - CPI m/m & Core CPI m/m Data
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Consumer Sentiment
* Fri. Nov. 12 @ 10:00 am ET - Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectations
* Tues. Nov. 16 @ 8:30 am ET - Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales Data
* Wed. Nov. 24 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
The Divergence Between the U.S. and Emerging Markets
The Weekly chart below of EEM shows price sitting at a confluence point in between the 50 & 200 smas and the mid-Bollinger Band as of Tuesdays' close. A break and hold below the 200 sma (say, 39.00) could send price down to around 35.00. A break and hold below that level would find the EEM dropping into a low-volume zone (as depicted on the Volume Profile), through which price could drop rather quickly.
Since the SPX and EEM have trended fairly closely with each other up until this year, and since they're both up against major resistance levels, it's worth monitoring these two to see which way global sentiment lies in the short term. A global "risk-on" environment would find both trading higher, and a global "risk-off" environment would see both trending lower...if markets remain worried about global risks, but continue to support the U.S. markets, we may see the SPX trend higher (perhaps at a slow, choppy pace) while the EEM trends lower or sideways.