Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





* Wed. Feb. 21 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. March 6 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Fri. March 8 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. March 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Friday, September 07, 2012

Money Flow for September Week 1

Further to my last weekly market update, this week's update will look at graphs and charts for:
  • 6 Major U.S. Indices
  • 9 Major U.S. Sectors
  • Germany, France, and the PIIGS Countries
  • Emerging Markets Sector (EEM) and the BRIC Countries
  • Canadian, Japanese, and the World Indices
  • Commodities
  • 7 Major Currencies
  • 30-Year Bonds
  • SPX:VIX and RUT:RVX Ratio Pairs
Very simply, you can see from the following series of graphs depicting percentage gained/lost for the past week, and the corresponding 1-Year Daily chartgrids, that they all ended the week higher, with the exception of Japan's Nikkei Index, the Agriculture ETF (DBA), the U.S. $, and 30-Year Bonds.

The global rally in the "Risk-on" trade was fueled by the ECB's proposed conditional/sterilized (i.e. no new money printing) bond buying program and China's fixed asset spending/stimulus program, which were announced this past week.

Price is either: at/near a prior 1-year high, making new highs for the year, at horizontal overhead price resistance levels, at uptrending channel levels/resistance, at downtrend channel resistance, or at moving average resistance.

Any that are in uptrend should look to their 20 sma for near-term support, followed by the 50 sma, on any pullback from here.

Any further rally would, no doubt, be fueled by positive news on a variety of events during the upcoming week, including Germany's Constitutional Court ruling on the legality of the ESM on September 12 (which will have a bearing on the ECB's ability to implement its bond buying program), the Dutch election on September 12, and the Fed meeting/Chairman Bernanke's press conference on September 13. There are also Eurogroup meetings and European Council Finance Ministers meetings next weekend, which may affect price action at the beginning of that OPEX week.

The Weekly chart below shows the profit-taking that's been occurring since the beginning of June on the 30-Year Bonds as it begins to form a "diamond" (potentially topping) pattern. For the moment, it's holding at trendline and near-term support as it closed just above its middle Bollinger Band. It's one to watch to see which direction is held by the eventual break of the diamond apex.

Volatility dropped over the past three days, as the SPX:VIX and the RUT:RVX ratio pairs bounced back above the bottom channel after a brief dip below, as shown on the two Year-to-Date Daily charts below.

Ideally, any further equity rally should see these two hold above the bottom of the channel, particularly on any pullback in the SPX and the RUT to their 20 sma on the Daily timeframe, as mentioned near the beginning of this post...otherwise, this three-month rally in Global equities may be finished for the time being as price, potentially, corrects to the 50 sma, or lower.

Enjoy your weekend and good luck next week!