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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...

TGIF

TGIF

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. April 18 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Wed. May 2 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Fri. May 4 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Thurs. May 10 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. May 23 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Mon. May 28 ~ U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day Holiday
* Wed. June 13 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...

Monday, February 20, 2012

Japan's Trade Balance at 12-Year Low

Data released on February 19th shows another monthly drop in Japan's Trade Balance. As shown on the graph below, it's at a twelve-year low and shows no signs of reversal, although the "actual" figures were slightly better than those "forecast."


Further to my post of February 9th, Japan's Nikkei Futures Index has continued to rally (on increased volumes) and paused today and closed for a second consecutive day just above the overnight pre-market low that was made on the Monday after the earthquake in mid-March of 2011, as shown on the Daily chart below.

This index generally traded in between this level and 10000 until it plunged, along with the U.S. markets, after the U.S. credit rating downgrade in August by Standard and Poor's. In spite of three attempts, it failed to hold above the 10000 level at which it was trading before the earthquake hit.


Additionally, the USD/JPY forex pair has also been rallying and paused today just below 80.00 (a level that was supposedly agreed upon by the U.S. & Japan after the earthquake (see my post of April 22nd, 2011).


Today's Tokyo news article reports that the S&P "left its credit rating for Japanese government debt unchanged at AA-minus with a negative outlook."

Inasmuch as there is a very large negative divergence in economic data for Japan and recent market/currency movement, we're left with two important levels to be watched over the coming days/weeks relative to both to see if they can be held (maintained in the case of the Index, and, first of all reached, then maintained in the case of the currency). Whether Japan's recent enhanced monetary easing activities will actually succeed in reducing that divergence in due course remains to be seen.