Further to my last post, I'd offer a caution to bears from getting over-eager on shorting the equity markets while they remain above minor support levels that the YM, ES, NQ & TF had established just before the latest unemployment data was released during pre-market hours on February 3rd. These e-mini futures markets rallied strongly (on nearly-normal-market-hour volumes, which I thought was unusually high) immediately after this data was released before cash markets opened.
Based on this "unusual pre-market volume" surge factor, I'd submit that short-term support sits at those "pre-release levels." Overlayed on the 4-Hour charts below is a Fibonacci retracement taken from the January lows to the current highs, as well as Bollinger Bands, 50 sma (red) and 200 sma (pink).
As can be seen, the YM, ES and NQ have not yet re-tested that "pre-release level," while the TF almost has and closed just above on Friday. This level for the YM and ES sits roughly in line with the 33% level (yellow) (12671 and 1322, respectively)...although it's not a traditional Fibonacci level, it represents the upper one-third marker of the rally for that defined time period and has merit as an area of support. The level for the NQ and TF sits roughly in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci level (light pink) (2503 and 808.50, respectively).
Until this "pre-release level" is crossed with conviction on decent volumes and held to the downside, I'd say it offers short-term support for these e-mini futures indices. Based on this analysis and the defining parameters, the "given" for any support levels beneath that level would be represented by subsequent Fibonacci levels, as shown.
On the flip side, any further advance above this level on decreasing volumes could be a bull trap in-the-making.
Welcome and thank you for visiting!
The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.
DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. Nov. 3 ~ U.S. Presidential Election
* Tues. Nov. 17 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Retail Sales Report & Core Retail Sales Report
* Wed. Nov. 25 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Thurs. Nov. 26 ~ U.S. Markets closed for Thanksgiving Holiday
* Fri. Nov. 27 @ 1:00 pm ET ~ U.S. Markets closed for Thanksgiving Holiday/Black Friday
* Wed. Dec. 2 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Dec. 4 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Thurs. Dec. 10 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Dec. 16 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Thurs. Dec. 24 @ 1:00 pm ET ~ U.S. Markets closed for Christmas Holiday
* Fri. Dec. 25 ~ U.S. Markets closed for Christmas Holiday
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events