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Monday, October 01, 2012

Broadening Wedges on the ES and TF

Two sets of broadening wedges on the 30 min charts of the ES and TF, on increasing volumes, tell me that intraday volatility is increasing from mid-September.

It would appear that a break and hold above 1454 on ES and 847 on TF is required to, potentially, re-establish an uptrend and decrease the volatility. Otherwise, a resumption of the decline is likely with a break and hold below 1431 and 831, respectively.



A warning of further downside movement on the ES is this Daily volatility ratio chart of the SPX:VIX. Price closed below the lower uptrending channel on Monday; however, it is just above a longer-term uptrend line from early January, so a bit of caution on the short side is warranted. The Momentum indicator fell below zero to confirm weakness in the SPX.


Price still remains above the bottom of the lower uptrending channel on this Daily volatility ratio chart of the RUT:RVX; however, the Momentum indicator has fallen below zero, so it is one that bears a close watch.