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Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Very Simply...

Looking at the Daily charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF, I'd be looking for a continuation of Tuesday's advance and a hold above its high on any retest before I would assign a "bullish" rating to all four in the short term...so, very simply, I'd like to see price remain above the middle Bollinger Band on future upward price movement with the caveat that high volumes support such a move, particularly on any breakout and hold above April's  highs. Otherwise, we may see further choppy sideways movement, or a deeper pullback until a new trend is established.

Inasmuch as the TF was unable to close near its high of the day, this e-mini futures index, especially, will need to attract heavier buying interest if it is going to present us with a convincing rally.

Additionally, I'm still mindful of my comments of April 13th with respect to the NQ...namely:
"The NQ's volume in the Volume Profile from February onwards is very thin, which signals a potential weakness/problem in this e-mini futures index being able to advance much further and hold above its 2011 highs. I wouldn't be surprised to see price drop back to this level at some point and further buying volumes finally enter to support a convincing rally...no doubt this would have a negative impact/drag on the other three indices."

The 4-Hour charts below show that price has rallied to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the YM, and touched the 50% level on the ES, NQ & TF. A short-term bullish scenario as I've described above would put all four on track to potentially reach their 127.2% external Fibonacci retracement targets which I described in my post of April 12th by Options Expiry Friday, April 20th. Since these are pretty lofty targets, we'd need extreme bullish advances to occur over each of the next three days...we'll see what happens.