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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

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* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





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Friday, April 20, 2012

Money Flow for April Week 3

Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 3 of April 2012.

The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that the only one that did not close higher than the prior week was the NQ (which is back inside its uptrending channel). The ES backtested its uptrending channel, but closed outside, once again.

As I mentioned in last week's market update, I'm assigning a weekly bullish or bearish rating on YM, ES, NQ & TF until the end of this year. Please refer to that post for the parameters, and to the Weekly charts below. As of this past week's close, the ratings for next week are as follows:
  • YM = mildly bearish
  • ES = mildly bearish
  • NQ = bullish
  • TF = mildly bearish
I'll re-iterate what I said in my last post about the NQ, namely: The NQ's volume in the Volume Profile from February onwards is very thin, which signals a potential weakness/problem in this e-mini futures index being able to advance much further and hold above its 2011 highs. I wouldn't be surprised to see price drop back to this level at some point and further buying volumes finally enter to support a convincing rally...no doubt this would have a negative impact/drag on the other three indices.

Further to my post of April 19th, the YM, ES, NQ & TF are still within their respective channels and did not make a new high today, as shown on the 4-Hour charts below.

I'll re-iterate what I said in that post, namely: I mentioned in my post of April 17th that I'd be looking for a continuation of Tuesday's advance and a hold above its high on any retest before I would assign a "bullish" rating to all four in the short term. Since that hasn't happened, we'll have to see whether we get more choppy sideways movement, or a resumption of the pullback below the low of the Fibonacci retracement, or whether we see price stair-step upwards to break and hold above Tuesday's high, before a new trend is eventually established on a Daily timeframe. I'd re-iterate that should this third scenario play out, I'd like to see high volumes support such a move, particularly on any breakout and hold above April's high, especially with respect to the NQ (for the reasons I explained on April 17th).

The three Daily charts below depict support and resistance levels on the percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day, 50-Day, and 200-Day Averages.

Stocks Above 20-Day Average closed higher than last week to just below the 40% level.

Stocks Above 50-Day Average closed higher than last week to just above the 40% level.

Stocks Above 200-Day Average closed higher than last week to just above the 66% level.

I'd conclude that, in the short term stocks are moderately bearish, in the medium term stocks are mildly bearish, and in the longer term stocks are moderately bullish...but, as has been the case for the past four weeks, all are still on negative watch for further potential weakness.

The VIX dropped on the week (by 10.79%), as shown on the graph below.

Further to the comments in my last weekly market update, the Daily ratio chart below of the SPX:VIX shows that that the SPX bounced and closed just below its 50 sma. Additionally, the RSI, MACD, and Stochastics indicators have turned up. Near-term support is at 65.00...an important level to watch.

As shown on the graph below of the Industry Groups, Biotech was the big gainer, with losses in the Semis, Gold/Silver, Brokers, and Banks.

As shown on the graph below of the Major Sectors, the largest gains were in the Health Care, Consumer Staples, Energy, and Utilities Sectors, with losses in Financials.

As shown on the graph below, the Commodities and Agricultural ETFs (DBC and DBA) were basically flat, and there were losses in the U.S. Financials ETF (XLF) . Gains were made in the Chinese ETF (GXC), European Financials ETF (EUFN), and Emerging Markets ETF (EEM).

As shown on the graph below, gains were made in Copper, Silver, and Oil, while there were losses in Gold.

The following four Weekly charts of Gold, Oil, Copper, and Silver show support and resistance levels...ones to watch, particularly Copper.

As shown on the graph below of the Major Indices, they all gained, except Transports which were basically flat. Gains were made in the High Dividend-Paying Stocks ETF (DVY), Corporate Bonds (JNK), and EEM.

As shown on the currency graph below, money flowed into the British Pound, Canadian $, Euro, and Aussie $...and out of the U.S. $.

The Daily ratio chart below of the SPX:U.S. $ continues to show the tug-of-war going on between the two as this ratio grapples with the near-term support level of 17.00...one to watch.

No doubt the markets will be awaiting the results of the FOMC meeting on Tuesday & Wednesday next week, and we may see volatility continue until then...particularly as the end of this month approaches, as well.

Enjoy your weekend!