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Sunday, August 14, 2011

Overhead resistance on YM, ES, NQ & TF

Overlayed on the Daily charts below of the YM, ES, NQ & TF are a downtrending regression channel which begins from the high close to the low close of this year, a Fibonacci retracement level from this year's high to low, and a sideways trending channel divided into thirds from this year's high to low.

At the moment, near-term support on the YM, ES & NQ lies on their lower one-third channel level, while it lies on the -2 deviation level of the regression channel on the TF.

Near-term resistance on the YM & ES lies around a confluence of their 38.2% fib retracement level and the -1 deviation level of the regression channel, while it lies around a confluence of a 50% fib retracement level and the +1 deviation level of the regression channel on the NQ. Near-term resistance on the TF lies, firstly, at the lower one-third channel level, then above at a confluence of a 38.2% fib retracement level and the -1 deviation level of the regression channel.

We'll see whether the prices hold above their near-term support levels on the YM, ES & NQ and continue a climb upwards, or whether they fall back into last week's volatile trading range. I consider the TF to still be within this range until it clears above the lower one-third channel level. During this equity options expiry week, I'll continue to watch the ETF, foreign ETF, forex, commodity and equity markets in my lists (with particular attention to the Financials) to measure their strength vs. weakness and their cohesiveness (or lack thereof), as well as the volatility indices and market internals. No doubt, this will be an interesting week.

P.S. For a look at longer-term support and resistance levels, I'll be examining the Weekly and Monthly charts of the YM, ES, NQ & TF with the same three overlays (which are based on their respective timeframes) during the course of this week as shown on the following 2 chartgrids (a quick glance at each shows where price is currently trading relative to these parameters):