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Tuesday, August 02, 2011

3-Day Candles...update on YM, ES, NQ & TF

My post of July 29 refers:  http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/07/3-day-candles-on-ym-es-nq-tf.html

Here's an update on this 3-Day chartgrid of YM, ES, NQ & TF...the current candle will close tomorrow. The comments noted in my previous post still apply. One thing I would add of note is the high volumes traded so far on the current candle, particularly on TF.

Furthermore, my post of July 28 refers:  http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/07/ym-es-nq-tf-slipping.html

Below is an updated 4-hour chartgrid of YM, ES, NQ & TF with those 2 regression channels (which were mentioned in my post) overlayed on the charts. The failure of ES & TF today to hold price above the -2 deviation level of the longer-term uptrending regression channel weakens any argument in favour of a return by these 2 e-minis to the +2 deviation level...the longer they remain below, the stronger the argument becomes. YM is currently trading around this -2 deviation level, while NQ is trading below the -1 deviation level.

The -2 deviation levels are as follows:
YM = 11800ish
ES = 1260ish
NQ = 2220ish
TF = 774ish

Whether or not price returns to and holds above these levels on ES & TF, and whether YM & NQ hold above these levels, depends on tomorrow's directional sentiment and momentum. I'll be watching the US$, VIX, VXN, RVX, Gold futures, $TNX, XLF, Advance/Decline Issues, Up/Down Volumes  (which registered a new 90-day low level on the sell side today), Cummulative TICK, as well as the 3-Day candle closes. Perhaps these will give clues as to whether or not the markets are rolling over or whether this is another set-up for a bear squeeze.

Prices on the following Daily chartgrid of variousVIX's are currently within a resistance zone, and, most notably, below the March 16 high...it will be interesting to see whether volatility picks up on these indices, and whether or not this high is taken out with conviction if these e-mini futures markets continue to drop at their current pace...even though TF broke and closed below January's, March's and June's low today (the Daily triple bottom), the RVX didn't return the favour in reverse.