Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...

Xmas Shopping

Xmas Shopping


* Tues. Dec. 12 ~ 2-day FOMC Meeting Begins
* Wed. Dec. 13 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Mon. Dec. 25 ~ U.S. Markets closed for Christmas Day holiday
* Mon. Jan. 1 ~ U.S. Markets closed for New Year's Day holiday
* Wed. Jan 3 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Fri. Jan. 5 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Jan. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Wed. Jan. 31 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

What Do The Complacency Odds Say?

The 5-Year Weekly chart below shows a comparison of the S&P 500 Index to the VIX. We can see what can happen when price has traded around the levels at which they are currently situated. On each of the past four years, price has spiked rather quickly from these levels by large percentages on the VIX, sending the S&P 500 plunging.

The next 5-Year Weekly chart below shows the ratio between these two indices. The S&P 500 is at a major resistance level compared with volatility. No doubt we'll see whether history (this cycle) repeats itself over the next days/weeks.

With spikes occurring in four of the past five years from current levels, I'd say the odds of another spike this year are running around 80%...possibly sooner rather than later.