My post of April 26th laid out a scenario for minimum and maximum target objectives to be reached by the Major Indices by the end of Q2, based on a number of assumptions.
The following is an update to report that the minimum target objectives have already been reached in 5 out of the 6 indices (Utilities, which had been on a parabolic rise, pulled back before reaching its minimum target), the maximum target was exceeded in the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000, and the maximum target was nearly reached (within 12 points) on the S&P 500. ***UPDATE May 22nd: Maximum target for the SPX was hit Wednesday morning.
This would suggest that these indices have risen at a much faster rate than economic conditions would warrant (my assumptions were based on Q2 GDP mirroring Q1 GDP, thereby causing the indices to perform on a similar trajectory as they did in Q1...however, weakening economic data that we've seen, of late, may end up showing a weaker GDP for Q2). As such, a correction (or even a pullback/profit-taking), as I mentioned last week here and here, may be imminent.
The following Year-to-date Daily charts of the Major Indices show market action relative to their respective channels (which were the basis of my projected targets).
The following percentage gained/lost graph of the Major Indices shows how much these indices have gained, so far, for 2013 (as of Monday's close). Not a bad performance. No doubt, some will be taking profits at these over-extended levels.
Welcome and thank you for visiting!
The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex
DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
please read my full Disclaimer at this link.
UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. March 21 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. March 30 ~ U.S. markets closed for Good Friday Holiday
* Fri. April 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. April 11 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. April 11 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. April 18 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Wed. May 2 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events