My post of April 26th laid out a scenario for minimum and maximum target objectives to be reached by the Major Indices by the end of Q2, based on a number of assumptions.
The following is an update to report that the minimum target objectives have already been reached in 5 out of the 6 indices (Utilities, which had been on a parabolic rise, pulled back before reaching its minimum target), the maximum target was exceeded in the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000, and the maximum target was nearly reached (within 12 points) on the S&P 500. ***UPDATE May 22nd: Maximum target for the SPX was hit Wednesday morning.
This would suggest that these indices have risen at a much faster rate than economic conditions would warrant (my assumptions were based on Q2 GDP mirroring Q1 GDP, thereby causing the indices to perform on a similar trajectory as they did in Q1...however, weakening economic data that we've seen, of late, may end up showing a weaker GDP for Q2). As such, a correction (or even a pullback/profit-taking), as I mentioned last week here and here, may be imminent.
The following Year-to-date Daily charts of the Major Indices show market action relative to their respective channels (which were the basis of my projected targets).
The following percentage gained/lost graph of the Major Indices shows how much these indices have gained, so far, for 2013 (as of Monday's close). Not a bad performance. No doubt, some will be taking profits at these over-extended levels.
Welcome and thank you for visiting!
The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.
DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.
* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...
Winter in City
UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Feb. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Feb. 3 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. Feb. 22, 2023 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Mar. 8 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Wed. Mar. 22 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.