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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Late Summer

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Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Sept. 26 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Oct. 5 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Mon. Oct. 8 ~ Canadian markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday
* Thurs. Oct. 11 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Oct. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Oct. 24 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Tues. Nov. 6 ~ U.S. Midterm Elections
* Thurs. Nov. 8 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Thurs. Nov. 22 ~ U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday & NYSE closes early @ 1:00 pm on Fri. Nov. 23
* Wed. Dec. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. & Wed. Dec. 25 & 26 ~ Canadian markets closed for Christmas & Boxing Day Holidays
* Tues. Dec. 25 ~ U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day Holiday & close early @ 1:00 pm on Mon. Dec. 24
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

It's Different This Time...But Not for the Reasons I've Heard

The argument that I've heard repeated ad nauseam as a reason why stocks should simply go up "until the Fed takes the punch bowl away" (even at current market all-time highs) has been, "It's different this time." I even heard a comparison today that we're in a market environment like the mid-90s.

I'd just take a minute to remind traders that Baby Boomers, who were heavily into acquiring all kinds of assets/products/services/loans for themselves and their growing children/teenagers in the 90s, are now facing retirement and are no longer "spending like there's no tomorrow" on the same kind of stuff. To illustrate this point, I'd direct you to my post of July 17, 2011.

We also know now that it's been difficult for young people to get jobs, in spite of (what appears to be) a lowering of the unemployment rate since 2011.

Just once, I'd like to see a solid, quantifiable presentation of what it is (and how much) that consumers are now buying, and who those consumers are, that would support such "It's different this time" theme.

The only reason that it's different this time is the one I've presented above. And it does not support the theory that markets should keep going up because the "Fed has your back." If that's the case, and based on my earlier post today (Tuesday), then markets would be operating on a casino-like mentality, not on sound economic, fundamental, and technical reasons. And, how long can that last?