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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
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...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...




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Thursday, April 11, 2013

Import/Export Prices Still in Downtrend

Data released today (Thursday) shows that import and export prices are still in an overall downtrend from 2009, as shown below.

Data sources: here and here

This downtrend is still in place in spite of the Fed's massive money-printing efforts to reflate prices to those seen leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. The world-wide slowdown in demand has created this downtrend, in spite of the sharp divergence in trend in the stock markets, as shown on the Weekly chart of the SPX below.

This chart definitely does not reflect the reality of this slow-down, as the equity markets seem to be operating solely under the influence of Central Banks around the world, and not on, what used to be, the laws of market supply and demand...they have simply morphed into a 'tool' used by Central Bankers.

In the meantime, the US National Debt continues to accelerate unabated. Since the trend of the markets and this debt continue to rise, it would seem that the markets are simply an accumulation of debt. If you wish to become a holder of debt without seeing increasing demand for actual tangible products, then by all means, continue to buy into this market. At some point, a bigger (and senior) holder than you (Central Banks and banks) will wish to cash in their debt and take payment...that will come from smaller holders...just look to the ECB and Cyprus for a recent example of that scenario.

UPDATE @ 6:00 pm EST - This just tweeted by Bloomberg News...need I say more...