Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Art Deco Xmas Lady

Art Deco Xmas Lady



* Wed. Dec. 13 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
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* Fri. Jan. 5 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. Jan. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Wed. Jan. 31 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

The Fed Stimulus Program "Canaries-in-the-Coal-Mine"

The Fed's new monetary stimulus program announced today (Wednesday) is geared towards shoring up the housing/mortgage market which, they hope, will, in turn, stimulate consumer/corporate/investor confidence and job growth. This has been their intent since they began a variety of monetary stimulus programs in 2008.

In this regard, it may be prudent to monitor the relationship between the financial markets and the SPX, and the housing markets and the SPX, in order to (generally) gauge the strength of market faith in the viability of such an outcome as we go forward over the next year. No doubt, these markets may produce short-term volatile reactions to various economic data points as they are released during this period. What will be of interest is whether any one particular release affects the general trend in such a way as to produce a reversal.

As such, I present the following two Daily ratio charts of the XLF:SPX (Financials ETF) and the XHB:SPX (Homebuilders ETF). At the moment, both the XLF and XHB Sectors are trading weaker compared to the SPX. The RSI Indicator has been in decline since September of this year. The XHB is relatively weaker compared to the SPX than is the XLF. In the near term, a drop and hold below current support on XHB:SPX, together with a failure to regain and hold above current resistance on XLF:SPX, may lead to a pull back in both of these Sectors. Furthermore, a drop and hold below the 50 sma (which serves as a support level on the general uptrend) may signal a trend reversal for both Sectors, which could send price down to the 200 sma...ones to watch over the next weeks and months.

***N.B. See UPDATE below...

***UPDATE Dec. 13/12: I've added a third ratio chart of the Retail Sector compared with the SPX (RTH:SPX). There has been comparative weakness in the Retail sector during December. Whether this continues through to the end of the month and into next year remains to be seen, but is worth keeping an eye on, along with the other two mentioned above.