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The charts and comments in my Blog (posted in Eastern Time) represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of markets...
*World Indices *U.S. Indices *Futures *U.S. Equities & Sectors *ETFs *Commodities *Forex
...an expanded version of the "Observations" section in my private Daily Trading Journal.

*** N.B. to my readers: Although I stopped trading in July 2013, I still take a peek at the markets now and then and post the occasional article here on my Blog.




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Thursday, December 06, 2012

AAPL Update

I last wrote about AAPL here and here. I'll provide an update on where AAPL is relative to price and relative to the NDX.

The updated 5-Year Weekly chart below of AAPL shows that a Head & Shoulders pattern may be forming, with declining right shoulder and neckline within its rising 4-year channel.

The first support level (below a potential neckline) is found at a confluence of a 40% Fibonacci retracement level, a 127.2% External Fibonacci retracement level, and the bottom of the channel at a price of 465.61.

The next (and major) support level sits at a confluence of price (consolidation), a 50% Fibonacci retracement, a 161.8% External Fibonacci retracement level, and a 50% Fibonacci fanline level at a price of 400.00ish.

The next chart is a 5-Year Daily ratio chart comparing price action of AAPL with the NDX. You can see that AAPL has been trading weaker than its index, and price has broken and closed below a major near-term major support of 0.21.
The first level of support ties in with that of the first support level mentioned above...a confluence of price (consolidation), the 40% Fibonacci retracement level, and the 200% External Fibonacci retracement level at a price of 0.18.
The next (and major) support level sits at a confluence of price (consolidation) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.15.
At the time of writing this post about an hour after the market open today (Thursday), the Momentum indicator has not dropped to a new low yet on today's initial price decline...indicating that a possible bounce and retest of what is now resistance at 0.21 may be forthcoming...one to watch over the next days/weeks, and into the end of the year.
By the way, we will soon see a bearish "Death Cross" form on both the AAPL and NDX Daily charts, as shown below, which suggests that further weakness is ahead.