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Monday, May 09, 2011

YM, ES, NQ & TF Still in Daily Uptrend...

The chart grid below of YM, ES, NQ & TF shows a Daily timeframe with several white horizontal price levels and a Fibonacci Arc. Whether the nearest levels hold as support (as in the case of YM) or resistance (for ES, NQ & TF) remains to be seen and could play a pivotal role in the next few days. All 4 have put in a higher swing low after today's close on this timeframe, and, having put in a higher swing high last Monday, they are, technically, still in daily uptrend. I would conclude, therefore, that near-term daily support is last Thursday's pivot low and major near-term resistance is last Monday's pivot high...however, in the case of ES, NQ & TF, they first need to break and hold above their minor resistance levels of 1343, 2403, and 858.10, respectively. If the pivot low is breached, then the daily uptrend would need to be re-established.

The chart grid below shows a closer look at intraday support and resistance levels as defined on a regression channel which is overlayed on a 60 min timeframe beginning from the swing low made prior to last Thursday's and is still moving upward. The broken pink line is the "mean", with standard deviations of + & -1 and + & -2 shown. Also shown is a Fibonacci Retracement. It can be seen from these 2 studies that, on this 60 min timeframe from April 18/11, the NQ is the strongest in terms of where it currently lies on its Fib retracement and regression levels, with the YM, ES then TF following. However, the NQ has been the least volatile in terms of price movement during this period. We'll have to see if price can move away from the present compressed levels on all the e-minis (and the NQ, in particular) and continue upward, or whether a change in the daily trend is forming.