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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

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Tuesday, May 03, 2011

TF and Confluence Levels...

Chart #1 shows today's close on the TF...each candle on this chart represents 3 days...the last 3-day candle ended today and has formed an outside bearish engulfing candle:


Chart #2 is a Daily chart of TF and today's candle has closed below a Fib combo and Regression Channel confluence (Zone #1):


Chart #3 is a 60 min chart of TF which shows where price bounced near the end of today at a Fib confluence level of 836.50:


Chart #4 is a 4 hour (market hours only) chart of TF which also shows this bounce level:


Chart #5 is a 30 min chart of TF which shows the current downward sloping Regression Channel for the past 2 days:


If the TF continued down at its same momentum over the next several days, it could reach a level of 800.00ish by Thursday or Friday of this week. In my opinion, however, it would have to break and hold below 836.50 firstly, and, subsequently below 830.00, then 820.00, and 813.40-809.00. There is also an unfilled gap from 831.60 to 824.30 which could hold as a level of support. One gauge I'll be looking at is the price action around each day's Daily pivot point...tomorrow's PP is @ 844.00...I'd be generally looking for any continuing and sustained weakness below that level, and, especially below 836.50, and drilling down to lower timeframes to look for any shorting opportunities on a daytrading basis...and, as usual, take into consideration the daily market factors/influences. Otherwise, I'd be looking for long entries above 844.00, all things being equal.