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Tuesday, May 03, 2011

TF and Confluence Levels...

Chart #1 shows today's close on the TF...each candle on this chart represents 3 days...the last 3-day candle ended today and has formed an outside bearish engulfing candle:


Chart #2 is a Daily chart of TF and today's candle has closed below a Fib combo and Regression Channel confluence (Zone #1):


Chart #3 is a 60 min chart of TF which shows where price bounced near the end of today at a Fib confluence level of 836.50:


Chart #4 is a 4 hour (market hours only) chart of TF which also shows this bounce level:


Chart #5 is a 30 min chart of TF which shows the current downward sloping Regression Channel for the past 2 days:


If the TF continued down at its same momentum over the next several days, it could reach a level of 800.00ish by Thursday or Friday of this week. In my opinion, however, it would have to break and hold below 836.50 firstly, and, subsequently below 830.00, then 820.00, and 813.40-809.00. There is also an unfilled gap from 831.60 to 824.30 which could hold as a level of support. One gauge I'll be looking at is the price action around each day's Daily pivot point...tomorrow's PP is @ 844.00...I'd be generally looking for any continuing and sustained weakness below that level, and, especially below 836.50, and drilling down to lower timeframes to look for any shorting opportunities on a daytrading basis...and, as usual, take into consideration the daily market factors/influences. Otherwise, I'd be looking for long entries above 844.00, all things being equal.