WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Remembrance Day

Remembrance Day

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Nov. 14 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Thurs. Nov. 22 ~ U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday & NYSE closes early @ 1:00 pm on Fri. Nov. 23
* Wed. Nov. 29 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Dec. 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Dec. 7 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Dec. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. & Wed. Dec. 25 & 26 ~ Canadian markets closed for Christmas & Boxing Day Holidays
* Tues. Dec. 25 ~ U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day Holiday & close early @ 1:00 pm on Mon. Dec. 24
* Wed. Jan. 30 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...

Thursday, May 18, 2017

30-Year Bonds on the Move

Further to my post of April 10, 30-Year Bonds have gained a couple of points, as shown on the Monthly chart below.

Price now sits just above major resistance (50% Fibonacci retracement) and is poised to begin reversing the steep plunge that began in mid-2016.


Furthermore, price has now broken above the 50-day moving average of the USB:SPX ratio and is currently at the major resistance level of 0.65, as shown on the Daily ratio chart below.

Inasmuch as we're close to seeing a new "BUY" signal form on all 3 technical indicators, I'd keep an eye on this ratio to determine its strength versus equities in the coming days/weeks (particularly, in light of my comments of May 17), especially, if it breaks and holds above 0.65. If it does, its next target would be the 200-day moving average at 0.70.


As an aside, I'd add that, in the midst of the current political chaos emanating from the White House, President Trump may end up remaining in power for 4 years, but if, in the meantime, he's widely regarded by domestic and foreign political players, as well as the American public, as untrustworthy (in spite of future facts and conclusions reached on current political and intelligence investigations), his tenure could very well end up being unremarkable and devoid of any major accomplishment.

In that kind of environment, this would NOT be a wagon that equity markets could confidently hook up to in a sustainable way, without the risk of accompanying high volatility, in my opinion.

In this regard, watch for a break and hold below the 150 major support level on the SPX:VIX ratio, as well as a drop and hold below zero on the Momentum indicator, as shown on the Monthly ratio chart below.

In that case, volatility will remain elevated and we'll see larger intraday and overnight equity swings.