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Saturday, May 20, 2017
2nd Quarter Indecision on SPX:VIX Ratio
The Momentum indicator has been sluggish since July 2014 on this timeframe, likely caused by the rise in volatility, large price swings and inability of this index to gain traction, until its breakout two years later.
Each candle on the following SPX:VIX ratio chart represents a period of one quarter. The current Q2 candle is a high-wave candle and its range is 96 points. This is signalling extreme indecision in support (or not) going forward for equities in the face of rising high volatility.
Price on on the Q2 candle is hovering above the Q1 close of 191.004, but is below 200.00...a level which, I've contended (and written about) for some time, represents a new bull market in equities.
However, in order for price to break and stay above 200.00, volatility will need to calm down and remain low. We may need to wait and see how the Q2 candle closes at the end of June to try and gauge what market sentiment may hold for the remainder of the year. At the moment, it's anyone's guess, although you may see a last-ditch spike in price on the SPX before the Fed's next interest rate announcement and Fed Chair press conference on June 14.