Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





* Wed. March 6 @ 2:00 pm ET - Beige Book Report
* Fri. March 8 @ 8:30 am ET - Employment Data
* Wed. March 20 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. April 10 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Meeting Minutes

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Monday, March 18, 2013

The Penny Has Dropped

After dropping overnight (presumably in response to the bailout conditions of Cyprus), Copper is still trading down near its low of the day. As shown on the Weekly chart below, it has broken below a fairly major uptrend line and both of its 50 and 200 moving averages, is sitting at its Volume Profile POC and lower Bollinger Band, and is just above its lower 1/4 of a longer-term very wide sideways channel.

A drop and hold below today's lows could send price down to 3.20 or lower to 3.00.

As well, should the EUR/USD drop and hold below today's lows, we could see a further drop to around 1.20. At the moment, it has bounced a bit after its overnight plunge, as shown on the Weekly chart below.

The European Financials ETF (EUFN) also gapped down on today's open and is attempting a gap fill up to its Volume Profile POC, as shown on the Weekly chart below. A drop and hold below today's low could send price down to 19.30 or lower to 18.50.

Gold has continued its safe-haven bounce, as shown on the Weekly chart below. Overhead resistance lies around 1630, while near-term support is around 1580. A resolution of either of these levels would likely see a continued move it that direction to the next level of either 1680 above or 1500 below. As long as there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding Cyprus and the rest of the EU countries, we may see Gold continue to rally for some time.

The following Weekly Gold:USD ratio chart shows the beginnings of relative strength of Gold over the US $ in last week's bounce from major support. With the various indicators beginning to hook up, we may see Gold outperform the dollar for awhile. Today's action is not yet shown on this chart, but I'll post one after today's close.

At the time of writing this post on Monday just after 12:30 pm EST, the following table shows how Major World markets have traded today...the only markets still open are the North and South American markets. You can see that the hardest hit today have been Russia, Japan, Hong Kong, China, Australia, Philippines, and Mexico. Oil services has also taken a hit.

The above markets are the ones I'll be following this week to watch for further reaction to the developing Cyprus bailout situation, along with world banking stocks and indices/ETFs (as well as those markets that I mentioned in my last two Weekly Market Updates here and here). Further weakness in these could produce a drag on the rest of the world markets and vice versa.

***UPDATE AFTER MARKET CLOSE: The following Weekly chart of the GOLD:USD ratio shows that Gold continued to (slightly) outperform the US $ by today's close.