WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Beach

Beach

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
* Thurs. July 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Fri. July 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Thurs. July 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. July 18 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
* Wed. Sept. 26 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains
with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance

Thursday, March 07, 2013

Golden Fibonacci Ratio Support on EUR/USD

I last wrote about the EUR/USD Forex pair on February 7th. At that time, price was trading around 1.3400.

Since then, price fell and has bounced somewhat...it's now 1.3095 (as of 11:29 am EST on Thursday) and is trading just above a confluence of two Golden Fibonacci Ratios (61.8%), which is near-term support at 1.3045, as shown on the Weekly chart below.

Price is trading in between the 50 sma (red) and 200 sma (pink). These moving averages are in a bearish "Death Cross" formation, and, as such, price is still under its bearish influence. A hold above 1.3045 could send it back up to retest its last swing high...a hold above that level could, finally, propel the EUR/USD higher to, eventually, reverse the moving averages to form a bullish "Golden Cross." This could take some time to play out, however, and we may see further range movement around both moving averages until then....otherwise, a drop and hold below the 50 sma could send price back down to retest the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2125, or lower.


In addition, and as a confirmation to any move on the EUR/USD, I'll be watching the European Financials ETF (EUFN). At the moment, it's in overall uptrend from its July 2012 lows, but has experienced a pullback from its February highs of this year, as shown on the Daily chart below. The Stochastics and RSI indicators have turned up and the MACD looks ready to cross to the upside, as well. A price break and hold above its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and 50 sma at 20.69 should produce that MACD crossover to, potentially, propel price higher. Otherwise, a drop below Fibonacci confluence at 19.32 could send price down to its 200 sma at 17.60/50ish, or lower.