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...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...




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Thursday, April 19, 2012

Correction Due for Japan's Nikkei?

Data released on Thursday showed that Japan's Trade Balance has now slipped to its lowest reading since 2000, as shown on the graph below. This balance has been slipping since its most recent high in early 2011.

Japan's Nikkei e-mini futures index (NKD) generally reflected this pattern, until it began its bounce from January of this year, as shown on the Weekly chart below. I'm wondering how long this divergence will last before one or the other corrects. It's had difficulty staying above the 10,000 level since it fell below immediately following the March 2011 earthquake...a level that is important to recapture and hold...but with supporting economic data to generate a convincing rally.