Volatility Back Into "Major Conflict Zone"

After today's (Friday's) 53.5 point drop on the SPX, volatility has now fallen back into the "Major Conflict Zone," as depicted on the following 20-Year Monthly ratio chart of SPX:VIX.

As I mentioned here and here, a drop and hold below the 150 Bull/Bear line-in-the-sand level would see a retest of the June 27th lows. You can see from the 60-Day 60-Minute ratio chart below, price closed today at 121.5. There are two remaining gaps below that level yet to be filled, which, when filled, would realize that retest.

Each candle on the following ratio chart depicts One Year. You can see clearly that today's close sits just above the 116.61 open of the 2007 candle.

Each candle on the following ratio chart depicts One-Quarter of One Year. As of today's closing level, upward Momentum is lower now than it was at the open of the Q1 2007 candle...hinting that the buying and bullishness seen on the SPX this year (which pushed Momentum to an all-time parabolic level on the Monthly ratio chart), is, in fact, weak, unsustainable, and without serious merit.

CONCLUSIONS:

Volatility has now risen sharply, after a summer of complacency. Look for wild swings in both directions on these ratio charts as long as price remains below 150. And, if it drops below 80.00, after a retest of the June 27th lows, I'd say that equity markets are in serious trouble and in for a substantial drop.

Complacency & Risk-Taking Leap Into The Unknown

Further to my post of August 2nd, and as of today's (Friday's) close, the SPX:VIX ratio,  has now stepped into unknown territory, while Momentum continues its unparalleled parabolic rise, as shown on the following 20-Year Monthly chart below.

The gaps shown on the updated 60 minute ratio chart below remain unfilled...just a reminder of what I said...

SPX:VIX Gap Fill Looming

The Momentum indicator on the SPX:VIX ratio is at a new life-time high and it's going parabolic, as shown on the Monthly chart below.

There are three gaps up yet to be filled on the following 60-day 60-minute chart of the SPX:VIX ratio. This ratio doesn't like to leave gaps unfilled on this timeframe.

We may soon see a retest of the June 27th lows...a break and hold below the 150 Bull/Bear line-in-the-sand level would do it.

Overlooked, again...

No Pulitzer prize for me, once again, this year, although I'm still available for nomination in the "Special Awards and Citations" category seen at this link.   ;-)

U.S., European & Chinese Financial Weakness

In my 2016 Market Forecast post of December 29, 2015, I mentioned three ratio charts worth monitoring for 2016.

They show the strength/weakness of the:

• XLF (U.S. Financials ETF) compared to $SPX
• EUFN (European Financials ETF) compared to $STOX50
• GXC (Chinese Financials ETF) compared to $SSEC

The following three updated Daily ratio charts show that U.S. and European financials are weak (and weakening) compared with their respective Major Index, so far, this year, while China's financials are also weak and mired in a long-term trading range, just above major support.

Even if U.S. equity markets do break out of their long-term high-basing trading range (as described in my last post), none of these three ratio charts fill me with much encouragement to project that such a rally could last very long if we see continued weakness, and, especially, a deterioration in these Financial ETFs compared with their Index.

A New Frontier Awaits For U.S. Markets

A new frontier awaits for U.S. equity markets to explore. They are fairing much better than other world markets, in spite of the Brexit uncertainty, and look poised to press upwards (likely choppily) for awhile, as shown on the 3-year comparison chart below of the SPX, World Market Index, and British Pound:USD Forex pair.

However, the closer we get to the U.S. Presidential election in November, we may see upward momentum begin to flatten out.

The World Market Index will, however, need to break through and hold above the 1600 major support/resistance level, once and for all (soon). If so, we could see such a breakout rally occur in the SPX -- possibly in a manner as I described in my post of July 1st.

Otherwise, if this index weakens, with sustained force, we may not see sufficient appetite for equity risk in the U.S. markets to push and sustain them to new heights.

Each candle on the ratio chart below of the SPX:VIX represents one year. (My latest post referencing this ratio, complete with updates, can be read here.) So far, the body of this year's candle is forming a bullish engulfing candle of the entire 2013, 2014 and 2015 candle bodies. As well, price closed above a major bull/bear line-in-the-sand resistance level of 150, once again, on Friday.

If we see price on this ratio hold above 150, we'll likely see the above scenario play out for U.S. equities. And, currently, momentum is favouring the bulls (albeit cautiously), as shown at this link to a Year-to-date graph showing gains/losses for the 9 Major U.S. Sectors. I'd keep a close eye on the Financials ETF to see if they suddenly weaken relative to the others, especially if banks in Europe begin to fail. If so, I believe this would negatively impact the rest of the U.S. markets.

Central Bank-Speak Is Not Logical, Sir...

...what Mr. Spock would say to Captain Kirk if Star Trek, The Stock Markets had been a fictional TV series.

However, what we're dealing with is fact...weird or what?

20-Year Monthly chart of SPX

Possible 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Target for the SPX

Each candle on the SPX chart below represents 1/4 of one year. 

Further to my post of June 27th, and, as shown on the following updated 20-Year Quarterly chart of the SPX, the 2016 Q2 candle closed today at a higher level than -- on what was a previously potential bearish hanging man -- the Q1 candle. This bearish reversal warning was not confirmed.

Instead, what we're left with, at the moment, is a wide-range high-base consolidation for the past 6 quarters, with price now near all-time highs.

As shown on the following 20-Year Monthly chart of the SPX, a solid breakout and hold to the upside of this large range could produce a rally to a confluence of the top of a long-term channel and a 200% Fibonacci Extension level of 2280 (yellow) by roughly October of this year, and, eventually, another confluence of the channel top and a 200% External Fibonacci level of 2485 (blue) by approximately December 2017.

That's a very bullish scenario and one that may take quite a bit longer to play out, with, possibly, a lot more volatility sprinkled into the mix than what I've shown...anything can happen between now and then, but the potential is there, nonetheless.

How Q2 Closes Is Important For SPX

* See UPDATE below...

Each candle on the SPX chart below represents 1/4 of one year.

• Q1 2015 is a spinning top candle (indecision)
• Q2 2015 is a shooting star (bearish warning)
• Q3 2015 is a bearish engulfing (bearish but needs a confirmation lower close)
• Q4 2015 is a bullish piercing pattern reversal candle, but such a candle is more effective after a decent drop, rather than stuck in a consolidation pattern at all-time highs
• Q1 2016 is a bearish hanging man (bearish but also needs a confirmation lower close on the next candle)
• Q2 2016 is an important candle, which will close this Thursday, June 30th, as it could be the bearish reversal confirmation candle that's needed for the Q1 candle -- a lower close is required

* UPDATE Thursday, June 30th:

As shown on the following updated 20-Year Quarterly chart of the SPX, the 2016 Q2 candle closed today at a higher level than -- on what was a previously potential bearish hanging man -- the Q1 candle. This bearish reversal warning was not confirmed.

Instead, what we're left with, at the moment, is a wide-range high-base consolidation for the past 6 quarters, with price now near all-time highs.

As shown on the following 20-Year Monthly chart of the SPX, a solid breakout and hold to the upside of this large range could produce a rally to a confluence of the top of a long-term channel and a 200% Fibonacci Extension level of 2280 (yellow) by roughly October of this year, and, eventually, another confluence of the channel top and a 200% External Fibonacci level of 2485 (blue) by approximately December 2017.

That's a very bullish scenario and one that may take quite a bit longer to play out, with, possibly, a lot more volatility sprinkled into the mix than what I've shown...anything can happen between now and then, but the potential is there, nonetheless.

Currency Canaries

* See UPDATE  below...

If currency markets continue to experience high volatility with a strengthening US dollar, I think equity markets, including North American markets, will follow suit.

So, I'll keep a close eye on those as potential canaries in the coal mine; e.g., to see whether the spread continues to widen (downward) between the SPX and the Pound:USD Forex pair, as shown on the Year-to-Date comparison chart below (the Pound lost 8.75% last Thursday and Friday).

Also, note the great disconnect, starting in mid-2014, on the 3-Year comparison chart below. I think currency markets were beginning to price in and forecast major world equity market volatility (that will, ultimately, be larger and last longer than most people currently anticipate).

Further to my last post on the World Market Index, price did, indeed, rally above major resistance of 1600 and appears to be forming an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the Weekly chart, below. However, a potential neckline is downward-sloping and price has fallen below 1600, once again, to the 60% Fibonacci retracement level. As well, new "SELL" signals are triggering (or are about to trigger) on all three indicators on this timeframe.

If price fails at current levels, I'd be wary of North American equities succeeding with any kind of sustainable rally, as it could very well be a short-term dead cat bounce. The currency canaries may provide confirmation of this potential event...worth monitoring.

Once again, price has plunged into the "Fragile Zone" (below 80) on the SPX:VIX Monthly ratio chart below.

As I mentioned here, a drop and hold below the 100 Bull/Bear Line-in-the-Sand level would signal that a downdraft is in store for equities. We saw the beginnings of that scenario play out on Friday, as the SPX lost 3.59%, following results of the UK Brexit vote.

We'll continue to see high levels of equity volatility as long as price on this chart remains below 100, and, to a lesser degree, below 150 (the next Bull/Bear Line-in-the-Sand level).

In conclusion, I'd re-iterate what I said in my March 3rd UPDATE to my post of February 17th...

     "We'll see if the newly penetrated 100 level holds as support now on the SPX:VIX ratio, as well as the 1600 level on the World Market Index, as shown on the following updated Daily charts of both. If so, it looks as though equity markets are in for a new bull run...possibly to new highs sometime this year. Otherwise, another failure of both of these levels will likely begin a new bear run to new lows."

The last sentence is the most important one to note.

* UPDATE Thursday, June 30th:

Something's gotta give...Q2 closed out today with an even wider spread between the SPX and the Pound:USD Forex pair, as the SPX continued to rally and the Pound continued to fall, as shown on the 3-Year comparison chart below.

The BREXIT Vote Wins...A Catastrophe Awaits

Further to my UPDATES noted on my last post, a massive Head & Shoulders pattern has formed on this GBP/USD Monthly chart...catastrophe awaits as price flirts with the neckline.

But, the FTSE 100 Index closed the week 234 points higher than last week...Weekly chart below...

...so, while it has not yet experienced the plunge like that in 2007/08, it is threatening to at major support (where it has languished for the past year), as shown on the Monthly chart below.

While volatility remains elevated in world markets, it will be difficult to get an accurate read on firm and sustainable market direction for the foreseeable future...particularly if the Pound remains below 1.40 and the FTSE 100 remains at or below current levels.

British Pound Hovers Precariously Above 30-Year Critical Support

* See UPDATES below...

In advance of Britain's "Brexit" or "Bremain" vote on Thursday, June 23, the British Pound has gained momentum as of last week, and Sunday evening as I write this post.

The current price of the GBP/USD Forex pair is 1.4581, as shown on the Monthly chart below. It will need to break and stay above that level and, potentially retest 1.50, which represents the next long-term resistance level.

A break and hold below the 30-year major support level of 1.40 could have catastrophic repercussions, not only for Britain's FTSE 100 Index, but also other major world indices. Price retested this long-term critical support level last week and is rallying.

Equities Look Vulnerable

What a mess! A drop and hold below 100 will signal that a big downdraft is in store for equities, as shown on the following Monthly SPX:VIX ratio chart.

Further background information can be found at this last post on the ratio.

WTIC Crude Oil & Canadian Loonie

If WTIC Crude Oil breaks below it's current (very tight) uptrend line, watch for the Canadian Loonie to tank.

As shown on the following 5-Year Daily chart comparing the two, they normally trade lock-step. Note the recent divergence of the Loonie starting in April and the fact that the RSI and MACD have fallen below the 50 level...which are hinting of further weakness ahead for Oil.

If Oil falls, I expect the Loonie will do so, as well. And, I'd be watching for a solid break below 75.00 on the Loonie as a possible signal that Oil will continue a drop to, perhaps, around $40.00, or lower, as shown on the next two 5-Year Daily charts.