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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Late Summer

Late Summer

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Sept. 26 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. Oct. 5 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Mon. Oct. 8 ~ Canadian markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday
* Thurs. Oct. 11 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Oct. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Oct. 24 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Tues. Nov. 6 ~ U.S. Midterm Elections
* Thurs. Nov. 8 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Thurs. Nov. 22 ~ U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday & NYSE closes early @ 1:00 pm on Fri. Nov. 23
* Wed. Dec. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. & Wed. Dec. 25 & 26 ~ Canadian markets closed for Christmas & Boxing Day Holidays
* Tues. Dec. 25 ~ U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day Holiday & close early @ 1:00 pm on Mon. Dec. 24
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance

Thursday, July 03, 2014

"RISK-ON" Theme to Begin Fourth of July Fireworks

Since the lows of 2009, markets have been trending upwards, generally, with a couple of pullbacks in 2010 and 2011.

From the Weekly comparison chart below of the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 Indices, you can see how much markets have gained, percentage-wise, since those lows. The Nasdaq is in the lead, followed by the Russell, S&P, and the Dow, thanks to the Fed's monetary policy pertaining to financial price stability, inflation, and unemployment concerns.

Since Janet Yellen indicated in her speech to the IMF on July 2nd that their monetary policy does not need to deviate from those concerns, I'd expect this bull market to, basically, continue until that changes. There may be periods of volatility over the next year or two that may be influenced by world incidents, or even by month-to-month economic data, especially concerning inflation or corporate earnings, but until we see any political uncertainty arise in the markets closer to the U.S. Presidential election in 2016, we may see a steady climb continue.


The next Weekly chart is the ratio of the SPX:VIX. This week's trading closed above near-term resistance of 180.00 and Momentum made another higher (all-time) swing high. Price may fluctuate between 180.00 and 150.00 before a further climb is made, if the 180.00 level (now near-term support) is breached.


The following Daily chart of the S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index (ES) shows a steady climb upwards in its channel from the 2013 breakout towards a confluence of the channel median with a Fibonacci Fanline and a Fibonacci extension level around the 1990 or 2000 level, as I mentioned in my post of June 8th (I was a little early in my projected date of the end of June for this target).

One thing I'm noticing on this chart is the drop-off in volumes...one to watch over the coming days/weeks to see if this trend continues, whether it has any effect on this upward climb, or whether we see more volumes pour into the Nasdaq and Russell Indices to confirm a full "Risk-On" scenario. This latter scenario would become evident over time on the comparison chart above...another one to watch.


Happy Fourth of July to my U.S. friends! Have a fun and safe long weekend.