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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

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Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. July 18 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Fri. Aug. 3 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Fri. Aug. 10 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Aug. 22 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
* Wed. Sept. 26 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Stay Buckled Up...More Volatility Ahead as July Closes!

My last post on the SPX:VIX ratio refers. I mentioned that price on the Weekly ratio chart below may retest the 130.00 level and then rally. On Thursday of this week, price not only retested 130.00, but it blew right below to close around the 110.00 major support level.

Momentum has dropped below the zero level, indicating further weakness may be ahead.


The Monthly chart below of the SPX:VIX ratio shows that a massive outside bearish engulfing candle has now formed on the July candle (to close out this month) and that Momentum has also dropped below zero on this timeframe...also signalling we may see further weakness ahead.

The question is whether we see weakness continue and accelerate on Friday and next week, or whether we see price fluctuate wildly to consolidate or bounce and resume its upward trek for awhile before a potential next leg down.


The following Daily chart of the SPX:VIX ratio shows that Momentum has dropped to a very low level on this timeframe, which has typically been followed by some kind of consolidation or bounce...one to watch in the days ahead for possible clues on market direction and conviction.


Price action on the Dow 30 has seen a break below both a 60% Fibonacci fanline and rising channel from the 2013 breakout, as shown on the Daily chart below.


Price on the SPX has dropped to the 50% Fibonacci fanline and bottom of the rising channel from the 2013 breakout, as shown on the following Daily chart.


Price on the RUT has dropped below the 60% Fibonacci fanline and and well below the bottom of the rising channel from the 2013 breakout, as shown on the following Daily Chart.


Failure of the Dow and RUT to reclaim their respective channels, and failure of the SPX to remain within its channel will likely see further weakness develop in these three Major Indices...stay tuned for further intraday volatile price swings either way!