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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

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NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...

Friday, January 11, 2013

Trade Balance Deficit Widens for U.S. and Canada

Trade Balance data published today (Friday) shows an increased goods and services deficit for the U.S. and Canada, as shown on the graphs below.



It remains to be seen how these countries will grow their exports for 2013. Export demand and currency demand are important since "foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports...and export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers."

The U.S. $ remains in a trading range, as shown on the Weekly chart below, in between the 50 (red) and 200 (pink) smas. At the time of writing this during market hours today, volumes have increased this week on the current bearish candle -- perhaps signalling/forecasting a further weakening of the dollar in order to stimulate demand for U.S. goods and services.


The USD/CAD forex pair remains in a large triangle formation, as shown on the Weekly chart below. At the moment, the U.S. $ is weaker and remains below parity. Rising prices on Oil and Lumber should continue to push the Canadian $ higher against the U.S. $ -- ultimately, favouring U.S. equities, and raising the cost of new homes, until the demand for them slows.


At the moment, Lumber is at 3-year highs (but the RSI, MACD, and Stochastics indicators are in overbought territory), and Oil is at resistance (the next major resistance level is 100), as shown on the Weekly charts below.



The Weekly chart below of the Homebuilders ETF (XHB) shows a desire of this market to break out to new 5-year highs, but price is at the top of a tightly-rising channel. The next major resistance level is around 30.00 -- one to watch for further direction, as any serious pullback in this ETF (and, possibly in Lumber and Oil) may negatively impact the equity market, in general.