WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Beach

Beach

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
* Thurs. July 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Fri. July 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Thurs. July 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. July 18 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
* Wed. Sept. 26 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains
with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance

Saturday, January 12, 2013

Major Index/Volatility Ratio Update

I last wrote about the comparison of three Major Indices with their Volatility Index counterparts on January 4th. While that post looked at a longer time period and mentioned major support and resistance levels, I'll provide an update for the shorter term.

As shown on the 1-Year Daily ratio chart below of the SPX:VIX, price closed on Friday at new highs. The Momentum indicator is still rising, but is approaching overbought territory -- cautioning that we may see a minor pullback in the near future, although there is no negative divergence. If we do see a minor drop, followed by a higher swing high in price on negative Momentum divergence, we may then see a larger pullback -- if not, then I'd look for a further rally in the SPX.


As shown on the 1-Year Daily ratio chart below of the NDX:VXN, price dropped then rallied this past week to close just below the last swing high. The Momentum indicator is still rising on positive divergence and still has a little way to go before it reaches the overbought territory. As I mentioned in my last post, we'll see if the NDX plays "catch up" with the other Major Indices, and this is one way to measure its strength.


As shown on the 1-Year Daily ratio chart below of the RUT:RVX, price closed near Wednesday's all-time high. The Momentum indicator is still rising and positive, but is approaching overbought territory -- cautioning that we may see a minor pullback in the near future, although there is no negative divergence. If we do see a minor drop, followed by a higher swing high in price on negative Momentum divergence, we may then see a larger pullback -- if not, then I'd look for a further rally in the RUT.


In conclusion, we may not see any relevant build in volatility until we get closer to the "Fiscal Cliff" and "Debt Ceiling Limit" deadlines around the end of February or early March.