WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Cabin

Cabin

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC VENTS...
* Wed. May 22 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Thurs. May 23 @ 3:30 am ET ~ German Flash Manufacturing PMI (watch for a hold below 50)...N.B. Jan. 24 PMI came in at 49.9, Feb. 21 PMI came in at 47.6, Mar. 22 came in at 44.7 & Apr. 18 came in at 44.5 (contraction mode deepens!)
* Wed. May 29 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. June 7 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. June 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Fri. June 14 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Wed. June 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

What's Really Changed?

What's really changed since Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating on August 5, 2011?

One year has passed, and the SPX has gone from a low of 1074.77 on October 4, 2011 to a high of 1426.68 yesterday (Tuesday), as shown on the Daily chart below. A double top has formed at major resistance.


The credit rating has not been upgraded. The Fed also downgraded the economic outlook at their meeting on August 9, 2011, as mentioned in my post of August 9th. The Fed remains committed to holding long term interest rates low for the foreseeable future. Europe's economic condition has weakened. The global economies have slowed. And, finally, the U.S. National Debt continues to rise (unabated) to all-time highs each second. The Fiscal Cliff looms.


Who is convinced that economic and fiscal conditions have improved since then? The only ones, so far, have been the buyers above the yellow arrows. No doubt they will begin to take profits at current levels and re-think their positions after the next FOMC meeting in September. A drop and hold below June's lows of this year would confirm that their sentiment has changed.