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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Profit-Taking in Tech Leadership

The first two Daily charts below show the profit-taking that is occurring in the Nasdaq 100 Index. It's currently sitting at the lower end of its smaller, steeper upward-sloping channel as I write this during intraday action on Tuesday.

You can see how it pulled further above the other Major Indices at the beginning of August on the third Daily chart (which shows percentages gained year-to-date for these indices) to form the steeper channel.

The fourth 1-day intraday chart shows a percentage comparison chart of the Major Indices to the Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). You can see that the Russell 2000 Index leads the Nasdaq 100, so far, today, while EEM is the laggard (it's also the laggard for the year, which suggests that traders are generally staying away from riskier foreign markets...a growth-averse vs value-favoured environment).

Whether any further profit-taking turns into a sell-off remains to be seen, but clues lie in the channels. A break and hold below this steeper channel on the Nasdaq 100 Index, along with a break and hold below the "mean" of the channels on the other three Major Indices, may signal the beginning of a sell-off in equities...particularly if the Nasdaq 100 breaks and holds below the upper edge of the larger channel below. Look for confirmation of such a move using the methods outlined in my posts of August 27th and August 24th.

On the other hand, if leadership switches to EEM on an intraday basis, that may be signalling the beginning of a parabolic move upwards in the equity markets before we see a sell-off/correction.