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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Paris

Paris

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. May 23 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Mon. May 28 ~ U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day Holiday
* Wed. May 30 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. June 1 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Tues. June 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. June 13 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* JCPOA - Will President Trump recertify the JCPOA on May 12?...stay tuned...May 8 the answer is "No"...US pariticipation in the deal
is scrapped...new sanctions coming for Iran and, possibly, for nations supporting Iran.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

The "Rush to Crush" Volatility

The two Weekly ratio charts below depict the SPX vs VIX and the RUT vs RVX.

Very simply, you can see that each rally made by these two Indices since the lows of three years ago has produced an increasingly steep advance before it pulled back. The current rally from the June lows of this year is almost starting to exhibit a "parabolic" steepness to it. It may run for awhile yet before potentially plunging. However, volumes these past couple of weeks has been very low, and whether this is a precursor to a change in trend remains to be seen.

Price on both charts has reached the top of a channel. The current rally may have run out of steam, and we may see price either pull back or consolidate at the highs to produce more of the same kind of roller coaster intraday activity that we've seen recently. Alternatively, we could see an acceleration of the rally to an even greater parabolic steepness, but I would expect that higher volumes would have to enter these markets to produce this kind of scenario. Near-term support levels are 95.00 on the SPX:VIX and 40.00 on the RUT:RVX.

These are important ones to watch over the coming days/weeks, particularly in the run-up to the Jackson Hole Symposium from August 30th to September 1st, and the FOMC Meeting results and Fed Chairman's press conference on September 13th (as well as the Eurogroup Meetings on September 15th and the European Council Finance Ministers Meeting on September 16th).